Welcome to another round of college football predictions. This time, we’re taking a closer look at how a few different models stack up for Week 3.
We’re focusing on the T Shoe Index (TSI) and comparing it with SP+, FPI, and Sagarin. It’s always interesting to see where these models agree—and where they just don’t.
We’ll point out some consensus picks and highlight the games where the models are all over the place. If you’re looking for a betting edge or just want to see which matchups are sparking the most debate, you’re in the right spot.
Week 3 College Football Model Consensus Picks
Week 3’s got some wild matchups, and the models have actually found a few games where they all point in the same direction. Tulane vs. Duke is probably the clearest example—every model favors Tulane here.
The line for Tulane vs. Duke has bounced around, from Tulane -3 to Duke -1.5. But if you average out the model projections, you get Tulane -6, give or take a couple points.
SP+ is the most bullish, calling for Tulane by 7.5, while TSI is a bit more reserved at Tulane -5.1. Still, no model is picking Duke. Tulane’s gritty win over South Alabama and Duke’s turnover problems against Illinois just add more weight.
If you’re looking for a pick, Tulane -3 or better feels like the play. Not much room for debate on this one.
Biggest Model Disagreements
Now, where things get messy: the games the models can’t agree on. Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern and Clemson vs. Georgia Tech are the big ones this week.
Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern: A Battle of Contradictions
Jacksonville State’s been surprising people—almost beating UCF and then knocking off Liberty as a big underdog. The models are all over the place as a result.
The average projection is Georgia Southern -2.5, but the variance is massive—over 14 points. TSI thinks Georgia Southern wins by 11, but SP+ actually has Jacksonville State as the favorite.
Honestly, this game’s a headache for bettors. If I had to pick, I’d lean Georgia Southern with TSI, but I wouldn’t blame anyone for steering clear.
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech: A Clash of Predictions
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech is another one where the models just can’t agree. Average spread is Clemson -1.9, but the variance is over 10 points.
TSI likes Clemson by almost 10, while FPI and SP+ are calling for a Georgia Tech upset. Sagarin sits right in the middle, barely favoring Clemson.
The betting line has reflected all this confusion, dropping from Clemson -6 to -2.5 in some spots. If you’re feeling bold, maybe back Clemson. Otherwise, probably best to just watch this one play out.
Conclusion
Week 3 of college football is shaping up to be a wild ride. There are some matchups you just can’t ignore, and the predictions from different models are all over the place.
Tulane seems like a consensus pick, which is interesting if you’re looking for a solid bet. But then you look at Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern and Clemson vs. Georgia Tech—suddenly, it’s not so simple.
Honestly, predictive models can be a headache. Each one brings its own quirks, and sometimes you just have to trust your gut or dig deeper into the context.
If you’re craving more analysis or want to see the numbers up close, check out the full breakdown at VSiN.
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