Week 6 College Football Bets: Expect a Slow Start for OSU-Minnesota

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Week 6 of the college football season is here, and sports betting fans are on the hunt for smart plays to stretch their bankrolls. This week, it’s all about patience and picking your spots—if you’re hoping for fireworks, you might be disappointed, but if you like gritty, strategic football, you’re in the right place.

ESPN’s Pamela Maldonado, a well-known sports betting analyst, has her eye on a string of under bets and one run-first favorite. She’s leaning into stats, matchups, and the kind of football that rewards careful, methodical play.

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Week 6 Betting Insights: Patience and Strategy

This week’s picks are built around slow, deliberate football. Maldonado admits it’s not the flashiest way to bet, but sometimes, slow and steady wins the race.

Her card is loaded with numbers and a sharp read on the teams involved. Let’s get into her top plays.

UNDER 56.5 and Cal +2.5 (+105)

Duke and Cal face off with a total set at 56.5, which Maldonado thinks is a bit too high. Duke can score, but both teams run at a slower pace, ranking in the bottom half for plays per game.

That tempo should keep things under control—unless one side suddenly finds a gear they haven’t shown yet.

Duke’s Offense: Duke’s stats look solid, but a chunk of their touchdowns came in Week 0 against Elon. That’s probably inflating their numbers.
Cal’s Defense: Cal’s secondary is tough, built to prevent big plays and force teams to earn every yard. That’s a nice edge for the under.
Cal’s Offense: Cal is near the bottom nationally in offensive EPA and still negative on EPA/pass. Their quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, only hits 40% of his deep shots, and Kendrick Raphael, their lead back, hasn’t broken many big runs.

This one feels like a slow burn. Under 56.5 makes sense, and grabbing Cal +2.5 at +105 has some appeal too, since their style tends to keep things tight.

Army -6.5

Army vs. UAB is another matchup that caught Maldonado’s attention. Army’s ground game is a nightmare for defenses, and UAB isn’t exactly stout against the run.

Army’s Possession Game: Army holds the ball for over 37 minutes per road game, which is wild. That keeps the other team’s offense sitting on the bench, especially UAB, who leans on Jalen Kitna’s arm.
UAB’s Red Zone Defense: UAB lets opponents score touchdowns on almost 80% of their red zone trips. Army’s long drives are more likely to end in six points than three.
Second-Half Dominance: Army controls 62% of possessions away from home, and it jumps to 75% in the second half. That slow grind wears teams out late.

Army -6.5 looks solid. If UAB jumps ahead early, it might be worth waiting and betting Army live at a better number. Just something to keep in mind.

UNDER 63.5

Arkansas State and Texas State offer another under opportunity. Arkansas State runs a ton of plays—top 15 in the country—but they’re near the bottom for yards per play.

That’s a lot of empty calories on offense.

Arkansas State’s Offense: They rack up plays, but turning them into points is a struggle. Recent games have been against tough competition, and it’s hard to see their offense suddenly clicking.
Texas State’s Run Game: Texas State is built around the run, chewing up clock with long drives. Their explosive plays have faded since Week 1, so don’t expect a shootout.
Defensive Struggles: Arkansas State’s defense isn’t great at tackling or coverage, but they’ve been better in the red zone at home than on the road.

This one looks like a grind. Neither team seems likely to push the total into the 60s, so under 63.5 feels like a decent spot.

1Q UNDER 9.5 (+100)

Maldonado’s been a fan of the first quarter under bet since last season. The Ohio State vs. Minnesota matchup looks like another shot worth taking.

Ohio State’s Slow Starts: In three FBS games, Ohio State’s only managed a single field goal in the first quarter. They seem to come out pretty methodical, maybe even a bit too careful.
Minnesota’s Offensive Struggles: Minnesota hasn’t put up any first-quarter points this season. Fast starts just aren’t happening for them.
Defensive Strengths: Both squads sit near the bottom in first-quarter scoring, but they’re tough on defense early. Ohio State hasn’t allowed a point in the opening frame. Minnesota’s given up just two touchdowns in three games.

Honestly, this one screams low-scoring early on. The under 9.5 at +100 feels like a risk, but not a wild one.

If you want to dig deeper or just see what Maldonado’s thinking, her full analysis is over on ESPN.

Joe Hughes is the founder of CollegeNetWorth.com, a comprehensive resource on college athletes' earnings potential in the NIL era. Combining his passion for sports with expertise in collegiate athletics, Joe provides valuable insights for athletes, fans, and institutions navigating this new landscape.

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