2025 College Football Playoff Predictions: ESPN's 12-Team Bracket Analysis

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The 2025 college football season is heating up as we pass the halfway mark. Week 7 has already delivered its fair share of surprises.

Eight Top 25 teams have stumbled into unexpected losses, including a wild upset for former No. 3 Oregon at the hands of Big Ten rival Indiana. The college football landscape feels like it’s shifting under our feet.

Let’s take a look at the latest projections for the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) bracket from ESPN experts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach. They break down the potential postseason matchups and bowl games—there’s a lot to chew on.

Table of Contents

ESPN’s 12-Team College Football Playoff Projections

This year, the CFP bracket shakes things up: no more automatic first-round byes for conference champs. Instead, the top four highest-ranked teams get those opening byes.

First-round games will be on campus for teams ranked 5-8. Winners move on to the quarterfinals, then the semifinals at set bowl sites.

First-Round Matchups

Bonagura and Schlabach don’t quite agree on all the first-round matchups:

Bonagura: No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Ole Miss

Both think the American Conference champ will grab the highest-ranked Group of Five spot, but they’re split on which team. Bonagura leans Memphis, Schlabach is backing South Florida.

Texas Tech and Ole Miss are pegged as the Big 12 champ and SEC runner-up, at least in these scenarios.

Bonagura: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Texas Tech

Both see the SEC loading up with five Playoff bids. LSU sneaks in as the fifth SEC team.

Bonagura imagines an all-SEC revenge game—LSU at Ole Miss. Schlabach, meanwhile, has LSU facing Texas Tech.

Bonagura: No. 10 Georgia at No. 7 Alabama
Schlabach: No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Alabama

Bonagura predicts Alabama hosting Georgia for a rematch. Schlabach swaps in ACC runner-up Georgia Tech instead.

Bonagura: No. 9 Georgia Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Georgia

Bonagura has Georgia Tech heading to Eugene to take on Oregon. Schlabach flips it, sending Oregon to Athens against Georgia.

Quarterfinal Matchups

The quarterfinals line up some intriguing possibilities:

Bonagura: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Indiana

Bonagura expects Alabama to meet Indiana, who’d still snag the No. 2 seed even after a loss to Ohio State. Schlabach drops Indiana to third, matching them with Texas Tech.

Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Miami
Schlabach: No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 2 Miami

Both have Miami locking up a first-round bye and then facing an SEC team. Bonagura puts Ole Miss in that slot, Schlabach picks Alabama.

Bonagura: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Ohio State is projected to win the Big Ten outright. That sets up a quarterfinal against either Oregon or Georgia, depending on whose bracket you trust.

Bonagura: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Texas A&M

Bonagura wants a Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M showdown. Schlabach swaps in Ole Miss for Tech, but keeps A&M as the opponent.

Semifinal Matchups

Both see the top four seeds advancing through the quarters. The semifinals look like this:

Bonagura: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 2 Miami

Bonagura puts Texas A&M against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. Schlabach sets up Indiana vs. Miami in the desert.

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Bonagura: No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura’s other semifinal is Miami vs. Indiana in Atlanta, with a title shot at stake. Schlabach imagines a Big Ten vs. SEC battle—Texas A&M and Ohio State—also in Atlanta.

National Championship Game

The experts split on the final matchup:

Bonagura: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura is bullish on the Big Ten, predicting an all-Big Ten title game. Schlabach thinks Miami could be the ACC’s last shot to stop Big Ten dominance—maybe, just maybe.

Full Bowl Slate

Bonagura and Schlabach also laid out their picks for the rest of the bowl games. Some standouts:

December 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
LA Bowl: Bonagura: Washington State vs. UNLV; Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

December 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl: Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy; Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Coastal Carolina

December 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl: Bonagura: NC State vs. East Carolina; Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl: Bonagura: Marshall vs. Louisiana Tech; Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. Buffalo

December 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Bonagura: Southern Miss vs. Jacksonville State; Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Bonagura: South Florida vs. Wake Forest; Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Florida State

December 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State; Schlabach: Ohio vs. Utah State

December 23

Boca Raton Bowl: Bonagura: Texas State vs. New Mexico; Schlabach: Temple vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl: Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion; Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: Bonagura: UTSA vs. Arizona; Schlabach: North Texas vs. Kennesaw State

December 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl: Bonagura: San Diego State vs. California; Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Tulane

December 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl: Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Bowling Green; Schlabach: Maryland vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl: Bonagura: TCU vs. Minnesota; Schlabach: Baylor vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Bonagura: Army vs. Penn State; Schlabach: TCU vs. UNLV

Conclusion

The 2025 college football season is already throwing curveballs, and honestly, it’s tough not to get a little excited. There’s still about a month before we see the first official CFP rankings, so for now, these projections are just a taste of what might be coming.

If you’re hungry for all the nitty-gritty details on bowl matchups and projections, check out the full article over at On3.

Joe Hughes is the founder of CollegeNetWorth.com, a comprehensive resource on college athletes' earnings potential in the NIL era. Combining his passion for sports with expertise in collegiate athletics, Joe provides valuable insights for athletes, fans, and institutions navigating this new landscape.

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