New Mexico State vs Liberty: College Football Odds and Expert Prediction

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The New Mexico State Aggies are heading to Lynchburg, Virginia, to take on the Liberty Flames in a college football matchup on Tuesday, October 14. Liberty’s favored by 10.5 points, so there’s a lot of buzz around this one, especially with the different trajectories and styles both teams bring.

Let’s dig into what could shape this game, and maybe get a sense of how things might shake out.

Table of Contents

Game Overview

The Aggies come in with a 3-2 record, having beaten FCS Bryant, Tulsa, and Sam Houston. Even with those wins, their run game has been, well, pretty rough—they haven’t managed 100 combined rushing yards in a single game all season.

Liberty, meanwhile, sits at 2-4. Their season’s been rocky too, thanks to a shaky rushing attack and a defense that hasn’t exactly shut down opponents on the ground.

New Mexico State’s Struggles

It’s hard to ignore the problems up front for New Mexico State. The offensive line has struggled, and losing starting center Kai Wheeler in Week 3 made things worse.

The Aggies’ ground game has just never gotten going. Still, they’ve found ways to win, mostly because their defense has a knack for forcing turnovers and keeping scores low when it matters.

Historic Run Game Struggles: The Aggies haven’t hit 100 rushing yards in any game this year.
Offensive Line Issues: Losing Kai Wheeler midseason really hurt an already struggling line.
Defensive Prowess: The defense has been opportunistic, forcing turnovers and holding teams to 14 or fewer points in their wins.

Liberty’s Challenges

Liberty was supposed to be a Conference USA contender, but things haven’t panned out. The offense has sputtered, mostly because their run game lost steam after Evan Dickens went out with a concussion in Week 5.

Quarterback Ethan Vasko came back in Week 7 and led them to a 19-8 win over UTEP. That was a bright spot, but there’s still plenty to worry about.

Inconsistent Rushing Attack: The Flames rely on the run, but losing Evan Dickens threw them off.
Defensive Struggles: Liberty’s defense has had trouble stopping the run, which has kept them on the field longer than they’d like.
Quarterback Play: Vasko’s return helped, but the offense isn’t out of the woods yet.

Betting Odds and Predictions

Right now, Liberty’s a 10.5-point favorite. The moneyline sits at -400 for Liberty, with New Mexico State at +325. The over/under is 46.5 points.

With both teams struggling to move the ball and their defenses showing up more often than not, it’s tough to see this turning into a shootout. If you’re into betting, the under at 46.5 feels tempting.

Factors Influencing the Outcome

There are a few things that could swing this game:

Rest Advantage: New Mexico State’s had almost two weeks off, while Liberty played last week. That extra rest might help, but sometimes teams come out flat after a layoff.
Offensive Schemes: The Aggies lean on the pass since their run game’s been non-existent. But Liberty’s defense is tough against the pass, ranking 28th in passing success rate allowed.
Defensive Matchups: Liberty struggles against strong running teams, but New Mexico State’s rushing woes probably won’t let them take advantage.

Key Players to Watch

Keep an eye on these names—they could swing the momentum:

Kai Wheeler (New Mexico State): He’s still out, and his absence has really shown up in the Aggies’ run game.
Ethan Vasko (Liberty): If he can get the offense moving, Liberty’s chances go up.
Tyler Martinez (New Mexico State): If he suits up at linebacker, the Aggies’ defense gets a boost.

Conclusion

The New Mexico State Aggies and the Liberty Flames are set for a matchup that’s honestly pretty intriguing. These two teams bring very different approaches to the field, and there are plenty of challenges on both sides.

Liberty comes in as the favorite, but hey, that’s never the whole story. The real outcome? It’ll probably depend on whether New Mexico State can get their passing game going, and if Liberty can shake off some of their recent offensive hiccups.

If you’re looking for a deeper dive or want to see some predictions, check out Action Network’s full article. It’s worth a look.

Joe Hughes is the founder of CollegeNetWorth.com, a comprehensive resource on college athletes' earnings potential in the NIL era. Combining his passion for sports with expertise in collegiate athletics, Joe provides valuable insights for athletes, fans, and institutions navigating this new landscape.

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