The Georgia Bulldogs are right in the thick of the College Football Playoff talk as we roll into Week 10. They’re sitting at 6-1, and, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, have an 81.5% chance to make the 12-team playoff field.
But it’s not exactly a clear path. Georgia’s playoff hopes still hinge on a few things breaking their way, especially with other top teams needing to stumble.
Let’s take a closer look at where Georgia stands, who they might face, and what absolutely has to happen for them to lock in a playoff spot.
Georgia Bulldogs’ Current Standing
Heading into Week 10, Georgia’s 6-1 record looks solid. They’re 4-1 in the SEC, which is nothing to scoff at.
Still, they don’t totally control their own fate when it comes to snagging a first-round bye. For that, they really need Alabama to drop two SEC games, which is asking a lot.
Oh, and Texas A&M hasn’t lost yet either. That just adds another complication for Georgia’s playoff picture.
Key Factors Influencing Georgia’s Playoff Chances
So what really matters for Georgia’s playoff shot?
- Alabama’s Performance: Georgia needs Alabama to lose two SEC games to knock them out of the playoff picture.
- Texas A&M’s Undefeated Streak: Texas A&M is one of the six teams in the country that has not lost yet. Their performance will be crucial in determining Georgia’s playoff fate.
- Remaining Schedule: Georgia must win out the rest of their games to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Projected College Football Playoff Field
ESPN’s FPI percentages give us a look at the projected 12-team College Football Playoff field. Here’s how that shakes out:
- Indiana Hoosiers (8-0): Projected Big Ten champion (96.8% playoff percentage)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0): Projected Big Ten runner-up (96.4% playoff percentage)
- Texas A&M Aggies (8-0): Projected SEC champion (96.0% playoff percentage)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1): Projected SEC runner-up (92.4% playoff percentage)
- Georgia Bulldogs (6-1): Projected SEC at-large (81.5% playoff percentage)
- Oregon Ducks (7-1): Projected Big Ten at-large (75.0% playoff percentage)
- BYU Cougars (8-0): Projected Big 12 champion (70.4% playoff percentage)
- Ole Miss Rebels (7-1): Projected SEC at-large (68.8% playoff percentage)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-0): Projected ACC champion (51.3% playoff percentage)
- Miami Hurricanes (6-1): Projected ACC runner-up (46.6% playoff percentage)
- Vanderbilt Commodores (7-1): Projected SEC at-large (44.1% playoff percentage)
- South Florida Bulls (6-2): Projected AAC/Group of Five champion (26.7% playoff percentage)
First Four Teams Out
And just missing the cut, we’ve got:
- Texas Longhorns (6-2): SEC (41.8% playoff percentage)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1): Projected Big 12 runner-up (38.7% playoff percentage)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2): National independent (29.5% playoff percentage)
- Tennessee Volunteers (6-2): SEC (22.6% playoff percentage)
Potential Playoff Matchups
Georgia, in this scenario, would be the third SEC team to sneak into the playoffs after Texas A&M and Alabama. So, what could the first round look like?
First-Round Games
- No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (BYE)
- No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (BYE)
- No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (BYE)
- No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (BYE)
- No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls
- No. 6 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt Commodores
- No. 7 BYU Cougars vs. No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
- No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
With Indiana, Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Alabama all getting byes, Georgia would be the top-seeded team actually playing. They’d host South Florida, a team that’s already dropped two games this year.
Alex Golesh and Byrum Brown are no joke, but honestly, Georgia should handle this one without too much drama. At least, that’s the expectation.
National Quarterfinals
If Georgia gets past South Florida, they’re off to the quarterfinals. Here’s how those potential matchups could shape up:
Quarterfinal Matchups
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 10 Miami Hurricanes
- Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt Commodores
- Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
That would set up a Georgia-Alabama rematch in the Sugar Bowl. Feels like we’ve seen this movie before, right? Alabama’s always a tough out for Georgia.
Semifinals and Beyond
If Georgia somehow gets past Alabama, it’s on to the semifinals. The possible matchups look like this:
Semifinal Matchups
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies
Indiana probably picks the Peach Bowl, since it’s not far from Bloomington. Alabama’s played there plenty, though, so maybe that helps them out.
Ohio State and Texas A&M would battle it out in the Fiesta Bowl. That one’s a bit of a toss-up, but Ohio State’s playoff experience might tip the scales.
National Championship Game
If Georgia actually makes it through the semifinals—big if—they’re most likely staring down Ohio State or Alabama in the title game. Both teams are giants in this spot.
Potential National Championship Matchup
- National Championship Game: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
That would be a rematch of the 2020 title game, back at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Two blue bloods, lights on, stakes sky-high. Can’t really ask for more if you’re a college football fan.
Conclusion
For the Georgia Bulldogs, dodging Alabama in the national quarterfinals seems crucial for any real playoff hopes. Nobody wants to see that matchup early—it just feels like a recipe for heartbreak.
Honestly, the cleanest path might be Alabama winning the SEC and handing Texas A&M their first loss. That scenario could slide Georgia into the No. 4 or No. 5 seed, keeping them away from Alabama until later.
If you want to dig deeper into all the possible playoff twists, check out the full article on Dawn of the Dawg.
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