When the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings for the 2025 season dropped, the Utah Utes popped up as a surprise at No. 13. That’s got people wondering—could Utah sneak into the CFP without even playing in the Big 12 Championship game?
Their end-of-season schedule looks pretty friendly, and the metrics back them up. Utah’s in a weirdly good spot to make a last-minute run at the playoff.
Utah’s Current Standing and Schedule
Utah’s jump to No. 13 in the first CFP rankings is turning heads, especially since the Associated Press poll put them four spots lower. Right now, the Utes are 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the Big 12.
They’ve only lost to top teams: undefeated BYU (No. 7) and one-loss Texas Tech (No. 8). Not exactly embarrassing.
Here’s what’s left for Utah:
- Nov. 15 — at Baylor
- Nov. 22 — vs. Kansas State
- Nov. 28 — at Kansas
Comparative Analysis: Other Top Teams
If Utah wants a playoff spot, they’ll need to leapfrog some heavy hitters. Here’s a quick look at the teams just ahead of them:
No. 9 Oregon (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten)
- Nov. 8 — at No. 20 Iowa
- Nov. 14 — vs. Minnesota
- Nov. 22 — vs. No. 19 USC
- Nov. 29 — at No. 23 Washington
No. 10 Notre Dame (6-2)
- Nov. 8 — vs. Navy
- Nov. 15 — at No. 24 Pittsburgh
- Nov. 22 — vs. Syracuse
- Nov. 29 — at Stanford
No. 11 Texas (7-2, 4-1 SEC)
- Nov. 15 — at No. 5 Georgia
- Nov. 22 — vs. Arkansas
- Nov. 28 — vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 12 Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2 SEC)
- Nov. 15 — at No. 4 Alabama
- Nov. 22 — vs. No. 22 Missouri
- Nov. 29 — vs. LSU
Big 12 Championship and Playoff Implications
Right now, BYU and Texas Tech are the favorites to play for the Big 12 Championship. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Texas Tech a 46.2% shot at winning the Big 12, and BYU a 35.5% chance. Utah’s sitting back at 10.8%.
Still, Utah’s got the easiest schedule left and some of the best metrics in the conference. That’s not nothing.
ESPN’s FPI says Utah has a 44.3% chance to win out in the regular season, which is actually the best among Big 12 teams. They’ve also got a 27.9% shot at making the playoff—behind BYU (65.5%) and Texas Tech (59.3%), but not out of it.
Metrics and Performance
Utah’s stats are pretty wild. They’re beating teams by over 36 points per game on average.
Last weekend, they crushed then-No. 17 Cincinnati, 45-14. Both losses? Tight games—Utah even led in the fourth quarter against BYU and Texas Tech.
National college football folks aren’t exactly on the same page about Utah’s No. 13 spot:
- Pete Fiutak, College Football News: *The committee did a nice job with this. Margin of victory actually does matter.*
- Brad Shepard, Bleacher Report: *There is way too much value being placed on coach Kyle Whittingham’s Utes’ mediocre résumé.*
- Stewart Mandel, The Athletic: *Utah is No. 13, four spots higher than AP. The metrics *love* Utah.*
- Shehan Jeyarajah, CBS Sports: *The Big 12 has to be *thrilled* with these rankings.*
- John Kurtz, Open for Business (Big 12 newsletter): *Utah is sitting so pretty right now. Cushy end to its schedule, chilling at 13.*
Conclusion
Utah’s path to the College Football Playoff is full of obstacles, but honestly, it’s not impossible. The Utes have a pretty favorable schedule this year, and their performance metrics are looking strong.
They’ve got a real chance at snagging an at-large spot in the new 12-team playoff. Of course, a lot still hinges on how they handle their remaining games—and, let’s be honest, what the teams just above them end up doing.
If you’re curious and want to dig deeper into Utah’s playoff odds, check out the full article on Deseret Sports.
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