Welcome to the Week 11 edition of “TSI vs the Field.” Here, we take a look at college football predictions and betting picks using the T Shoe Index (TSI) and stack it up against other respected predictive models like SP+, FPI, and Sagarin.
This week, we’re searching for key betting opportunities and pointing out games that might be best left alone because of wild swings in projections. The models give us a broad look at the college football slate, showing where they overlap and where they just don’t see eye to eye.
If you’re hoping for a real, honest deep dive into this week’s college football betting scene, well, you’ve landed in the right spot.
Understanding the Models
Before we get into the Week 11 picks, let’s get a handle on the models we’re working with:
- SP+: Bill Connelly’s ESPN model, built on play-by-play data and efficiency numbers.
- FPI: ESPN’s Football Power Index, which weighs team strength using past performance, recruiting, and a few other things.
- Sagarin: Jeff Sagarin’s creation (formerly USA Today), blending score-based metrics and historical data.
- TSI: The T Shoe Index, which is a bit of a wildcard—it updates fast based on what’s happening this season.
Key Betting Picks for Week 11
South Florida vs. UTSA
The model average for this matchup is South Florida -12, which is pretty much in line with the opening line. There’s barely any variance—just 2.6 points—so all the models are in the same ballpark, projecting a 10.5 to 13 point win for South Florida.
SP+ puts USF at -10.5, and the others are hanging around 12-13 points. With that much agreement, UTSA +14 seems like a sharp angle.
Houston vs. UCF
This one opened as a pick ’em, but the line has slid toward Houston. Bettors are looking for Houston to bounce back after a rough game against West Virginia. On the other hand, UCF got steamrolled by Baylor, which stung anyone who took UCF +3.5.
Still, the pick here is UCF +1.5. Maybe it’s a bit of faith in their ability to turn it around, or maybe it’s just the right spot for them.
Model Disagreements
Indiana vs. Penn State
This game is a mess for the models. Indiana’s been improving, Penn State’s been slipping, and the projections are all over the place—from Indiana -7 (Sagarin) to Indiana -20 (TSI).
FPI and SP+ are closer to -11 and -12. Sagarin might be hanging onto preseason numbers, while TSI’s moving faster with the times. With Indiana’s top WR Elijah Surratt possibly out, this one’s just not worth the headache.
Florida State vs. Clemson
The average projection here is Florida State -2.5, but the variance is wild—12.3 points. TSI is all-in on FSU at -9, while SP+ and FPI lean their way too.
Sagarin, though, actually has Clemson at -3.5. Both teams have been up and down, so this feels like a game to just watch and enjoy, not bet.
Conclusion
This Week 11 edition of “TSI vs the Field” digs into college football betting opportunities, highlighting where things might go right—or sideways. By seeing where the models agree and where they don’t, bettors can try to make smarter calls.
If you want a deeper dive or the latest updates, you might want to check out the full article on VSIN.
Look out for this feature every Thursday. There are also early-week college football bets shared on Mondays, if that’s your thing.
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