We’re heading into the penultimate weekend of the college football regular season, and honestly, the tension is off the charts. Week 13 is loaded with games that could shake up conference title races and the College Football Playoff picture.
Several showdowns this week will shape the fate of teams with playoff dreams. From USC and Oregon’s high-stakes collision to Oklahoma’s win-or-go-home scenario, let’s get into the main storylines, key matchups, and what the experts think for the biggest games on tap.
USC vs. Oregon: Playoff Hopes on the Line
This USC vs. Oregon game? It’s probably the headline act of Week 13. Both squads are desperate for a shot at the College Football Playoff, and neither can afford to slip up now.
USC sits at 8-2 and has to win out—meaning Oregon and UCLA—if they want their first-ever playoff berth. Oregon, sitting at 9-1, doesn’t really have any margin for error. A loss here might be the end of their playoff hopes.
Key Matchups
- USC’s Passing Attack vs. Oregon’s Coverage: Jayden Maiava and Makai Lemon headline one of the most efficient passing games in the country. But Oregon’s defense, with its 92.5 PFF coverage grade, is no joke.
- Oregon’s Pass Blocking vs. USC’s Pass Rush: Oregon’s offensive line leads the FBS with an 89.6 PFF pass-blocking grade. USC’s pass rush, which has been a bit quiet lately, needs to wake up to slow down Oregon’s firepower.
Expert Predictions:
- Max: Oregon 34, USC 27 – Oregon’s muscle in the trenches is going to be tough for USC.
- Dalton: Oregon 38, USC 28 – Oregon’s edge up front should get them across the finish line.
Oklahoma vs. Missouri: A Must-Win for the Sooners
Oklahoma kept their playoff hopes alive with a huge win over Alabama. Now, the Sooners have to take care of business at home against Missouri and LSU if they want to snap their six-year playoff drought.
Missouri, ranked No. 22, brings a tough ground game and a defense that won’t make things easy.
Key Matchups
- Missouri’s Rushing Attack vs. Oklahoma’s Run Defense: Ahmad Hardy is a load to tackle, but Oklahoma’s run D has been up to the task all season.
- Oklahoma’s Offensive Line vs. Missouri’s Defensive Line: Oklahoma’s pass protection has held up, but their run blocking? Not so much. Missouri’s front, ranked fifth nationally, will try to take advantage.
Expert Predictions:
- Max: Oklahoma 21, Missouri 17 – Expect a defensive struggle, with Oklahoma’s QB doing just enough.
- Dalton: Oklahoma 24, Missouri 20 – Missouri’s physicality could cause problems, but Oklahoma’s defense should hang on.
Miami vs. Virginia Tech: Hurricanes’ Playoff Path
Miami stands as the ACC’s highest-ranked team, but they need some luck to reach the ACC Championship. They’ve got to win out and cross their fingers for other results to break their way.
This week, they’re on the road against a Virginia Tech squad that’s been struggling.
Key Matchups
- Miami’s Offensive Line vs. Virginia Tech’s Pass Rush: Miami’s O-line has been rock solid, giving up the lowest pressure rate in the country. Virginia Tech’s pass rush will have to bring its absolute best.
- Miami’s Coverage vs. Virginia Tech’s Passing Game: Miami’s secondary has stepped up, which could spell trouble for Virginia Tech’s inconsistent passing attack.
Expert Predictions:
- Max: Miami 38, Virginia Tech 14 – Miami’s O-line should give their QB plenty of time to pick apart Tech’s secondary.
- Dalton: Miami 28, Virginia Tech 13 – Virginia Tech’s defense might hang in, but their passing woes probably sink them.
SMU vs. Louisville: Mustangs’ Playoff Aspirations
SMU is still hanging onto hopes for back-to-back ACC Championship Game appearances. They need to win out and get a little help elsewhere.
This week, they’re up against a tough Louisville team that can run the ball and get after the passer.
Key Matchups
- Louisville’s Rushing Attack vs. SMU’s Run Defense: Louisville’s backfield is stacked, but SMU’s run defense has been one of the country’s best.
- SMU’s Pass Protection vs. Louisville’s Pass Rush: SMU’s O-line has been lights out in pass protection, which they’ll need against Louisville’s pressure.
Expert Predictions:
- Max: SMU 28, Louisville 27 – Expect a battle up front, with SMU squeaking one out.
- Dalton: SMU 31, Louisville 24 – SMU’s run defense and sharper passing game should be enough.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky: Commodores’ Cinderella Run
Vanderbilt’s wild ride continues as they try to lock up a College Football Playoff spot. At 8-2, the Commodores can’t afford another slip.
This week, they meet a Kentucky team that’s looked better at quarterback lately.
Key Matchups
- Vanderbilt’s Pass Defense vs. Kentucky’s Passing Game: Vanderbilt’s secondary has had its issues, and Kentucky’s Cutter Boley has been hot lately.
- Vanderbilt’s Offense vs. Kentucky’s Run Defense: Vanderbilt’s attack, led by Diego Pavia and Eli Stowers, will have to find holes against a stout Kentucky run D.
Expert Predictions:
- Max: Vanderbilt 34, Kentucky 21 – Pavia and Stowers keep Vanderbilt’s playoff hopes alive.
- Dalton: Vanderbilt 31, Kentucky 24 – Vanderbilt’s passing game might just be too much for Kentucky.
Utah vs. Kansas State: Utes’ Playoff Path
Utah’s still in the playoff chase at 8-2 and ranked No. 12. They’ve got to win out and hope for some help to get into the Big 12 title game.
This week, they face a Kansas State team fighting just to become bowl eligible. Should be interesting to see who wants it more.
Key Matchups
- Utah’s Pass Rush vs. Kansas State’s Offensive Line: Utah’s pass rush is fierce. They’ll try to rattle Kansas State’s quarterback, Avery Johnson, who hasn’t exactly looked comfortable when defenders get close.
- Utah’s Offense vs. Kansas State’s Run Defense: Utah likes to get creative on offense. Jet sweeps, quarterback runs—you name it, they’ll probably try it, and Kansas State’s defense will have to adjust on the fly.
Expert Predictions:
- Max: Utah 34, Kansas State 21 – Utah’s offense has tricks up its sleeve, and their pass rush could be just a bit too much for Kansas State.
If you’re after more analysis or just want to dive deeper, the full article’s over at PFF.
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