The race to the 2025 Big 12 Championship Game is heating up. Six teams are still in contention as the regular season winds down.
The next two weeks will be crucial. Which teams will face off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, for a shot at a College Football Playoff bid?
The latest rankings from the playoff selection committee have set the stage for a wild finish. There are still so many scenarios in play—honestly, it’s almost dizzying.
Here’s a closer look at the paths, tiebreakers, and possible outcomes for the top contenders.
The Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios
Six teams are still alive for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. With the new rankings, there’s even a chance BYU could end up facing one-loss Texas Tech in the title game.
That matchup could put two Big 12 teams in the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. Wouldn’t that be something?
Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire has been pretty vocal about BYU’s resume in the at-large discussion. He keeps pointing to the strength of the conference, and he might have a point.
Cincinnati’s recent losses have really complicated their path. They missed out on a golden shot at a winner-take-all game against BYU.
Big 12 Tiebreaker Procedures
The Big 12 has a pretty detailed tiebreaker procedure to figure out who gets to play in the championship game. Here’s how it works:
- Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
- Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams.
- Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings, moving down the list.
- Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (so, strength of schedule).
- Total number of wins in a 12-game season, with conditions on counting wins against FCS or lower-division teams.
- Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics after the last weekend of regular-season games.
- Coin toss if, somehow, everything else fails. Imagine it coming down to that.
Multi-Team Tiebreaker Procedures
If there’s a multi-team tie—which, let’s be honest, feels likely this year—here’s the approach:
- Records of the tied teams are compared based on winning percentage in games among those teams.
- Winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all the teams involved in the tie.
- Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings, working down the list.
- Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (again, strength of schedule).
- Total number of wins in a 12-game season, with the same conditions as above.
Scenarios for Top Contenders
Let’s break down the scenarios for the top contenders in the Big 12 Championship race. Some are straightforward, others are a bit of a mess.
Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have looked like the conference’s most dominant team, with just one close loss to Arizona State. If Texas Tech beats West Virginia, they’re in the Big 12 Championship Game.
If they lose to West Virginia, though, things get messy. They’d need BYU to beat Cincinnati and UCF, and Arizona State to beat Colorado and Arizona to miss the championship game.
BYU
The Cougars control their own fate. If BYU beats Cincinnati and UCF, they’re in.
Even if they lose to Cincinnati but beat UCF, they still have a decent shot thanks to their head-to-head tiebreaker over Utah. That’s a nice cushion to have.
Utah
The Utes need a little help. If they beat Kansas State and Kansas, they’re in if BYU loses to Cincinnati and UCF, and Cincinnati loses to TCU.
Utah holds a tiebreaker edge over Cincinnati thanks to their head-to-head win. But it’s not entirely in their hands.
Arizona State
The Sun Devils’ chances are slim, but technically they’re still alive. If Arizona State beats Colorado and Arizona, they’ll need West Virginia to beat Texas Tech, and Utah and Cincinnati to each pick up another loss.
That would give Arizona State a spot in the championship game because of their tiebreaker over Texas Tech. Stranger things have happened, right?
Cincinnati
The Bearcats have a complicated path. They need to beat BYU and TCU, and hope two-loss Arizona State, Houston, and Utah all stumble again.
If that happens, Cincinnati would make it to the championship game against Texas Tech, since they hold the tiebreaker over BYU. It’s a long shot, but not impossible.
Conclusion
The last two weeks of the regular season are shaping up to be wild. Six teams are still fighting for a shot at the Big 12 Championship Game.
There are so many scenarios and tiebreakers in play, it’s almost dizzying. Fans should get ready for some serious drama as everything shakes out.
If you want to see all the possible outcomes and how the tiebreakers work, take a look at the full article on CBS Sports.
- Schools Covered
- College Football Articles
- Men's College Basketball Articles
- Men's College Soccer Articles
- Women's College Basketball Articles
- Olympic Athlete Articles
- Men's College Baseball Articles
- College Sports Media Professionals Articles
- Hall of Fame Member Articles
- Former College Player Articles
- Game Previews
