Miami Hurricanes' Path to College Football Playoff: Key Scenarios Explained

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The Miami Hurricanes find themselves in a tricky, yet frankly thrilling spot as they chase a possible berth in the College Football Playoff (CFP). They’re still underdogs, but there’s a tangled mess of scenarios that could land them in the ACC championship game—and maybe even the CFP.

This piece takes a look at the paths Miami might take to get there, with an eye on the must-win games and the outside help they need.

Table of Contents

The Road to the ACC Championship

For Miami, the road to the ACC Championship is a maze of variables. There are eight specific ways they could make it, but every scenario depends on help from other teams.

The one thing they absolutely have to do? Beat Pittsburgh. Without that, none of the rest even matters.

Scenario 1: Miami wins, SMU wins at California, Duke loses to Wake Forest, and Virginia loses to Virginia Tech.
Scenario 2: Miami wins, Duke wins, SMU and Virginia lose, and North Carolina State beats North Carolina.
Scenario 3: Miami wins, Virginia wins, Duke and SMU lose, Syracuse beats Boston College, and NC State beats UNC.
Scenario 4: Miami wins, Duke, SMU, and Virginia all lose, and North Carolina State wins.
Scenario 5: Miami wins, Duke, SMU, and Virginia all lose, and Syracuse wins.

Three more scenarios involve Miami needing to edge out rivals in Sports Source Analytics:

Scenario 6: Miami wins and finishes higher than SMU and Georgia Tech in analytics if Duke, Virginia, and SMU lose and Syracuse and Boston College win.
Scenario 7: Miami wins and finishes higher than SMU and Georgia Tech in analytics if Virginia, Boston College, and NC State win and Duke and SMU lose.
Scenario 8: Miami wins and finishes ahead of Duke in analytics if SMU, Duke, and NC State win and Virginia loses.

Climbing the CFP Rankings

Even if Miami gets to the ACC Championship, they still have to win it in Charlotte on December 6. That’s non-negotiable if they want a real shot at the CFP.

But here’s the kicker: there’s no lock for an automatic CFP spot, even if they win. They need to climb from 12th to at least 10th in the rankings by December 6.

Key Games to Watch

This weekend could be wild. There are a handful of games that could really shake up Miami’s ranking:

Outcome 1: UCF wins at No. 11 BYU, No. 10 Alabama loses at Auburn, plus No. 15 Michigan drops at home to No. 1 Ohio State, and No. 14 Vanderbilt loses at No. 19 Tennessee.
Outcome 2: No. 8 Oklahoma loses at home to LSU, and either BYU or Alabama also lose, or maybe No. 9 Notre Dame stumbles at Stanford.
Outcome 3: Notre Dame falls at Stanford, paired with a BYU or Alabama loss, and, just to be safe, losses by Michigan and Vanderbilt too.
Outcome 4: Losses by BYU, Alabama, and Oklahoma, and (again, just to be sure) a loss by Michigan or Vanderbilt.

There’s also a chance that a Mississippi loss at Mississippi State could push Miami past the Rebels, though that’s hardly guaranteed. If teams ahead of Miami lose a third game in their conference championship, who knows? Maybe Miami sneaks into the top 10.

And if Texas Tech beats one-loss BYU in the Big 12 championship, Miami could jump BYU—assuming the Cougars make it to the title game by beating UCF.

Challenges and Considerations

Honestly, the path to the CFP is loaded with obstacles. The selection committee has made it pretty clear they see Notre Dame as better than Miami, even though Miami beat the Irish earlier this year.

So, even if Miami handles their business and gets some help, there’s a very real chance they’re left out if Notre Dame beats Stanford. Frustrating? Absolutely.

At the end of the day, Miami just has to focus on beating Pittsburgh. The rest? Out of their hands. All they can do is hope the football gods are feeling generous this year.

Final Thoughts

The Miami Hurricanes are right on the edge of something big. Their road to the College Football Playoff? Not exactly a walk in the park.

They’ve got to win, obviously, but that’s not all—other games have to go just right. If you’re curious about all the possible twists and turns, the Miami Herald has a full breakdown.

With selection day creeping closer, everyone’s watching Miami and the chaos that could shake up their season. Whether they make the ACC Championship or somehow slip into the CFP top 10, one thing’s clear: Miami fans are in for a wild ride.

Joe Hughes is the founder of CollegeNetWorth.com, a comprehensive resource on college athletes' earnings potential in the NIL era. Combining his passion for sports with expertise in collegiate athletics, Joe provides valuable insights for athletes, fans, and institutions navigating this new landscape.

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