The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks and the Fresno State Bulldogs are set to clash in the 2025 Arizona Bowl. This matchup looks like a defensive slugfest in the making.
Fresno State’s favored by 6 points, with an over/under set at just 41.5. Expect a low-scoring game—neither team’s offense has inspired much confidence this season.
Both defenses have been tough, so field position and third-down conversions might end up deciding things. If you like gritty, defensive football, well, you’ll probably be glued to this one.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks: Offense vs. Defense
Miami’s offense has had a rough go. They’re sitting at 88th in EPA per Pass and 107th in EPA per Rush, which honestly says a lot.
Explosive plays are rare for them, with just 41.1% of Available Yards generated. That’s not a recipe for fireworks.
Offensive Struggles
The RedHawks play slow and punt often. Sustaining drives has been a real problem.
With Henry Hesson at quarterback, Miami’s got to figure something out against Fresno State’s defense. That’s a tall order.
Defensive Strengths
Thankfully for Miami, their defense has held up. They’re top 50 in EPA per Pass allowed and top 55 in EPA per Rush allowed.
They’re especially tough on early downs, ranking 14th in Early Downs EPA allowed. Opponents end up in tough third downs more often than not.
Allowing just a 48.5% third-down conversion rate, this defense keeps Miami in games.
Fresno State Bulldogs: Offense vs. Defense
Fresno State comes in at 8-4, but their offense is a question mark. Injuries and transfer losses—especially at skill positions and on the line—haven’t helped.
Even when healthy, their offensive stats were rough: 121st in EPA per Pass and 117th in EPA per Rush. Not exactly confidence-inspiring.
Offensive Challenges
Staying on schedule has been an issue. Fresno faces long third downs way too often.
They’re 126th in third-down success rate and 108th in average third-down distance. With backups likely to play, don’t expect a sudden turnaround.
Defensive Prowess
Defense is where Fresno State shines. They’re 22nd in EPA per Pass allowed and 39th in EPA per Rush allowed.
They only give up 34.3% of Available Yards, which is impressive. This group knows how to make life hard for opposing offenses.
That kind of efficiency could really stifle Miami’s conservative approach.
Key Factors
So what’s going to matter most? Both teams have stingy defenses and struggling offenses. Something’s gotta give, right?
Third-Down Conversions
Third down is going to be huge. Miami’s defense allows a 48.5% conversion rate, while Fresno’s offense is way down at 126th nationally.
On the flip side, Fresno’s defense is solid here too. Every third down is going to feel like a mini-battle.
Field Position
Field position could swing things. Miami’s plodding, run-heavy style and Fresno’s injury woes mean we’ll probably see a lot of punts.
The team that manages to flip the field and get a short field might just be the one that comes out on top.
Conclusion: A Defensive Battle Awaits
The 2025 Arizona Bowl is shaping up to be a defensive battle. Both teams have struggled on offense but bring a lot of grit on the defensive side.
Fresno State’s missing some key offensive players. Miami tends to play a slow, conservative game, so it’s tough to imagine a shootout here.
The under 41.5 total points feels like a strong bet. Honestly, these teams will probably lean on their defenses just to keep things close.
If you want a deeper dive or more predictions, check out the Action Network’s comprehensive breakdown of the Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State game. This Arizona Bowl might not be flashy, but it’s definitely shaping up to be an intriguing, hard-fought contest.
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