The college football bowl season is rolling, and analyst Steve Makinen is back with his picks. His track record speaks for itself, and he’s been breaking down the matchups for bettors and fans.
This article covers his latest predictions for the upcoming bowl games and CFP quarterfinals. If you’re looking to bet or just want to keep score, here’s what Makinen’s thinking.
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
On December 30, 2025, Coastal Carolina faces Louisiana Tech at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana. Coastal Carolina’s coming in cold, losing three straight and giving up an ugly 51.7 points per game.
The Chanticleers are also dealing with coaching changes and quarterback injuries. It’s not a great outlook for them.
Why Louisiana Tech is Favored
Louisiana Tech actually finished strong, winning their last two with Trey Kukuk at quarterback. They’ve also got a regional edge, since the game’s basically in their backyard.
Teams with that local advantage have covered the spread 56.4% of the time in the last 95 games. Favorites have also covered 14 of the last 21 Independence Bowls. Makinen’s leaning Louisiana Tech -9.5 here.
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
December 30 brings Illinois vs. Tennessee at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Illinois had a decent year but didn’t quite meet expectations, even with eight wins.
They faded late and now face a Tennessee team that’s basically playing at home.
Tennessee’s Strong Non-Conference Record
Tennessee’s been killing it outside the SEC, with an 18-6 ATS record since 2021. Quarterback Joey Aguilar and other key players are expected to play, so motivation shouldn’t be an issue.
It’s worth noting that outright winners have covered the spread in 23 of the last 26 Music City Bowls. Makinen is looking at Tennessee -2.5 and maybe the over at 61.5 points.
Valero Alamo Bowl
TCU and USC meet at the Alamodome in San Antonio on December 30. TCU’s quarterback situation is a mess—Josh Hoover’s in the transfer portal, so Ken Seals probably starts.
USC will have Jayden Maiava back, which gives them some much-needed stability on offense.
USC’s Bowl Game Success
Lincoln Riley’s Trojans have been explosive in bowl games, scoring 45, 42, and 35 in their last three. TCU’s offense sputtered down the stretch, so it’s tough to see them keeping up.
Makinen’s pick: USC -6.5.
ReliaQuest Bowl
Vanderbilt takes on Iowa at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on December 31. Vanderbilt had a surprising season, with quarterback Diego Pavia leading the way.
They just missed the playoffs but are still a tough out.
Vanderbilt’s Favorable Matchup
Iowa went 8-4 but hasn’t been great as a bowl underdog—just 3-6-1 ATS since 2011. Favorites have won 10 of Iowa’s last 12 bowl games and covered nine.
Makinen’s going with Vanderbilt -4.5.
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Arizona State squares off with Duke at the Sun Bowl in El Paso on December 31. Head coach Kenny Dillingham just got an extension, and backup QB Jeff Sims has stepped up.
Arizona State’s Defensive Edge
Arizona State’s defense has been solid, giving up just 23 points per game. Duke, meanwhile, has let nine different teams score at least 25.
Underdogs have done well in this bowl—21-7-1 ATS since 1995. Makinen likes Arizona State +3.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Michigan and Texas clash at Camping World Stadium in Orlando on January 1, 2026. Michigan’s roster is depleted—up to 25 players could be out.
Texas, with Arch Manning at quarterback, has hit its stride lately.
Texas’ Offensive Surge
Michigan’s defense has slipped, allowing 20+ points in their last three. Texas is averaging 33.6 points over their last five games.
Outright winners have covered the Citrus Bowl spread every year since 2002, and Big Ten teams are just 3-10 SU and ATS in their last 13 appearances. Makinen says take Texas -8.5.
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Utah faces Nebraska at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on January 1, 2026. Utah’s bowl history under Kyle Whittingham is impressive, even if they’ve had some recent bumps.
Nebraska’s Quarterback Issues
Nebraska might have to start third-string QB Jaylen Gramstad, who hasn’t played much. Utah’s physical team should have the upper hand against a banged-up Nebraska.
Makinen recommends Utah -14.5.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Miami (FL) and Ohio State meet at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on January 1, 2026. Miami’s offense has been sputtering, while Ohio State brings a ton of playoff experience.
Ohio State’s Dominance
Ohio State’s history in big bowl games is hard to ignore. Favorites in these playoff games have gone 27-9 SU and 24-12 ATS.
Makinen’s call: Ohio State -9.5 and over 42.5 points.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl
Oregon faces Texas Tech at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on January 1, 2026. Texas Tech comes in hot, winning six straight both straight-up and against the spread.
Texas Tech’s Underdog Advantage
Their defense has been tough, giving up only 43 points over those six games. Even as underdogs, they could pull the upset.
Makinen’s taking Texas Tech +2.5.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game
Indiana and Alabama play at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena on January 1, 2026. Indiana’s been steady, while Alabama’s had a rockier road this season.
Indiana’s Favorable Matchup
Favorites have a 15-3 SU and 12-6 ATS record in the last 18 Rose Bowls. SEC teams haven’t done well as 7-point underdogs or more in recent bowls.
Makinen’s pick: Indiana -7.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Georgia will play at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on January 1, 2026. Their defense has looked strong since an earlier matchup, and that’s worth keeping an eye on.
Georgia’s Defensive Strength
Georgia’s defense has really stepped up this season. They’re shaping up to be a tough contender in the Sugar Bowl.
Makinen thinks Georgia is in a good spot to cover the spread, which is honestly not too surprising given how they’ve been playing.
If you’re looking for more details or want to dive into the numbers, check out the full article on Steve Makinen’s College Football Bowl Game and CFP Quarterfinals Best Bets, Predictions, and Picks.
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