Penn State’s Rise and Alabama’s Decline in 2026 College Football

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In college football, things change fast. One year you’re up, the next you’re scrambling to recover.

Looking toward the 2026 season, some programs are clearly trending upward, while others might be in for a rough ride. FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt recently weighed in on why Penn State’s arrow is pointing up and Alabama’s isn’t—plus a few more teams worth watching.

Penn State: A Program on the Rise

Penn State’s 2025 season started with big dreams but crashed to a 3-6 finish and a coaching change. Enter Matt Campbell, who’s brought some much-needed hope to Happy Valley.

Campbell’s decade at Iowa State proved he can build solid teams. Now, he’s trying to work that magic at Penn State.

Key Factors for Penn State’s Resurgence

So, what’s fueling the optimism?

  • Experienced Quarterback: Rocco Becht has 39 career starts under his belt, which should help steady the offense.
  • Favorable Schedule: The Big Ten slate isn’t brutal, though games against USC, Michigan, Washington, and Minnesota could get tricky.
  • Coaching Excellence: Campbell’s proven track record and some Iowa State talent in the mix give Penn State a real shot at a 10-2 season and maybe even a playoff run.

Alabama: A Year of Uncertainty

Alabama’s still a giant in the sport, but 2026 looks uncertain. They’ve lost some big names—Ty Simpson, Kadyn Proctor, Germie Bernard—and those are tough holes to fill.

Challenges Facing Alabama

What could trip up the Tide?

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  • Inexperienced Quarterback: With Simpson gone, Alabama’s betting on a young QB. That’s always a gamble, isn’t it?
  • Running Game Struggles: Last year’s run game was, frankly, underwhelming. Will it get better? Hard to say.
  • Defensive Concerns: The defense is talented but hasn’t really proven itself yet. There’s just a lot of unknowns.

LSU: Poised for a Comeback

LSU’s been stumbling since their 2019 title, but Lane Kiffin’s arrival has fans buzzing again. He’s got a knack for turning programs around, and quarterback Sam Leavitt is a nice addition.

Factors Driving LSU’s Resurgence

What’s different this time?

  • Coaching Expertise: Kiffin knows how to rebuild and attract talent. That’s a big plus.
  • Improved Roster: Key transfers, especially at quarterback, should help them compete.
  • High Expectations: LSU’s history means people always expect a lot, and this roster might finally deliver.

Ole Miss: A Step Back

Last year, Ole Miss had a dream run—13-2 and a playoff semifinal. But Lane Kiffin’s gone, and Pete Golding’s taking over. That’s a tough act to follow.

Challenges for Ole Miss

Can they keep it rolling?

  • High Expectations: Golding’s stepping into some big shoes here.
  • Historical Context: Let’s be real, Ole Miss usually hovers around .500. Matching last year’s magic right away seems unlikely.

UCLA: A New Era

UCLA’s 3-9 flop in 2025 led to a coaching shakeup—Bob Chesney’s now in charge. He’s wasted no time, bringing in over 40 transfers and welcoming back quarterback Nico Iamaleava.

Reasons for Optimism at UCLA

Why the sudden hope?

  • Coaching Change: Chesney’s arrival and a wave of new faces have energized the program.
  • Experienced Quarterback: Iamaleava’s back, which gives them a fighting chance on offense.
  • Recruiting Success: With veteran coaches and talented transfers, maybe UCLA finally turns the corner.

Illinois: A Dip in Performance

Bret Bielema’s done well at Illinois, picking up 19 wins in two years. But 2026 looks like a different story, with lots of roster turnover and key departures.

Factors Contributing to Illinois’ Challenges

What’s working against them?

  • Roster Turnover: Losing core players on both sides of the ball is a big blow.
  • Resource Limitations: Illinois just doesn’t have the same recruiting power as the big boys. That’s a tough hurdle.

Florida: A Path to Improvement

Florida’s 4-8 mess in 2025 cost them their coach. Now Jon Sumrall’s in, and he’s bringing some much-needed optimism and fresh talent.

Reasons for Florida’s Potential Improvement

Is a turnaround on the way?

  • Coaching Change: Sumrall’s got a proven track record and seems to connect with recruits.
  • Talent Infusion: New faces and a focus on recruiting could finally get Florida back on track.

Vanderbilt: A Step Back

Vanderbilt shocked everyone with 10 wins in 2025. But losing stars like Heisman finalist Diego Pavia is a gut punch for 2026.

Challenges for Vanderbilt

What’s the downside?

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  • Loss of Key Players: Replacing guys like Pavia isn’t easy. Honestly, it might not be possible this year.
  • Historical Context: Let’s not forget—last year was the exception, not the rule for Vandy.

Virginia Tech: A New Beginning

James Franklin’s move to Virginia Tech has given the fanbase reason to hope. He’s got Brent Pry sticking around as defensive coordinator, which should help steady things.

Reasons for Optimism at Virginia Tech

Why might things turn around?

  • Coaching Change: Franklin’s arrival feels like a fresh start for the Hokies.
  • Experienced Coaching Staff: Keeping Pry and adding transfers could give them a real shot at improvement.

Georgia Tech: A Challenging Year Ahead

Georgia Tech had a solid nine-win season in 2025. But now they’re dealing with the loss of key players, including Haynes King, and both coordinators have left. That’s a lot to overcome, honestly.

Challenges for Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech’s got a tricky road ahead this year, and honestly, a bunch of reasons are stacking up.

  • Loss of Key Players: Losing experienced guys like Haynes King? That’s not something you just bounce back from overnight.
  • Coaching Changes: Both coordinators are gone, so the team’s rhythm is bound to feel off. Adjusting to new leadership isn’t exactly a walk in the park.
  • Tough Schedule: Eleven games against Power 4 opponents? That’s a grind, no matter how you spin it.

If you’re curious and want to dig deeper, there’s a full breakdown on why Penn State’s on the rise and Alabama isn’t over at FOX Sports.

Joe Hughes
Joe Hughes is the founder of CollegeNetWorth.com, a comprehensive resource on college athletes' earnings potential in the NIL era. Combining his passion for sports with expertise in collegiate athletics, Joe provides valuable insights for athletes, fans, and institutions navigating this new landscape.

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