The 2026 college football season is here, and there’s a wave of new head coaches in the Power Four conferences. These changes set up a season full of expectations, pressure, and maybe some wild turnarounds.
Lane Kiffin’s debut at LSU is drawing the most attention, while James Franklin gets a fresh start at Virginia Tech. Each coach has a unique set of challenges and opportunities ahead. Let’s look at their projected records and what they’ll need to accomplish in Year One.
High Expectations: Lane Kiffin at LSU
Lane Kiffin’s move to LSU is probably the most talked-about coaching change this year. He’s got the nation’s top-ranked transfer class, so the pressure’s sky-high.
The message is simple: it’s College Football Playoff (CFP) or bust. LSU’s administration has gone all-in, so anything less than a playoff spot will feel like a letdown.
Projected Record: 10-2, 7-2 (SEC)
LSU’s roster is stacked, especially at the key spots. Kiffin’s got enough offensive firepower to make the Tigers a real threat in the SEC.
The conference schedule is brutal, though. A 10-2 finish seems about right, but the CFP pressure will be hanging over every game.
Building Foundations: Ryan Silverfield at Arkansas
Ryan Silverfield has a tough job at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are desperate for a rebuild and just don’t have the depth to hang in the SEC right now.
Fans are getting impatient. Silverfield’s first year is more about earning trust and developing players than making a run at anything big.
Projected Record: 4-8, 2-7 (SEC)
Given the schedule and the roster, 4-8 feels about right for Arkansas. Silverfield has to convince boosters to invest and get the NIL game up to speed.
Progress will be slow, but someone has to lay the groundwork. That’s the real job here.
Mid-Tier Moves: Alex Golesh at Auburn
Alex Golesh walks into a better situation at Auburn. The defense is solid under D.J. Durkin, and they’ve hit the transfer portal hard.
The roster looks competitive, at least on paper. That’s a good starting point in the SEC.
Projected Record: 7-5, 4-5 (SEC)
Golesh is known for his creative offense, and quarterback Byrum Brown adds some stability. Auburn could be a tough out this year.
A championship run? Probably not. But a 7-5 season and a bowl game would be a strong start. If everything breaks right, maybe they surprise a few folks.
Proven Quarterbacks: Tosh Lupoi at California
Tosh Lupoi inherits a proven quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, which gives Cal a shot to do better than people expect. Lupoi’s energy and defensive chops will be tested in the ACC.
Projected Record: 7-5, 5-4 (ACC)
With Sagapolutele leading the way, 7-5 and a bowl game are realistic goals. Building up the supporting cast and shoring up the defense will matter a lot.
Immediate contention? Probably not. But there’s a decent foundation to build on.
Rebuilding Challenges: Jeff Rogers at Iowa State
Jeff Rogers has one of the toughest rebuilds in the Power Four at Iowa State. Matt Campbell’s departure to Penn State left the Cyclones short on talent and depth.
Rogers will be leaning hard on young players and transfers. That’s a tough recipe in the Big 12.
Projected Record: 4-8, 2-7 (Big 12)
The schedule isn’t doing them any favors, and proven production is lacking. A 4-8 record is probably about right.
Bowl eligibility would be a minor miracle, honestly. The focus will be on developing talent and setting a new tone.
Immediate Expectations: Collin Klein at Kansas State
Collin Klein is back at Kansas State, and the expectations are high. He’s got Avery Johnson at quarterback, and the offense will be built around his skills.
The Wildcats want to make some noise in the Big 12. There’s real potential here.
Projected Record: 7-5, 4-5 (Big 12)
With Johnson’s athleticism, Kansas State could surprise. Eight wins isn’t out of reach, but 7-5 is the safe bet.
Consistency is key. If they get it, maybe they can push for a conference title.
Optimism in Lexington: Will Stein at Kentucky
Will Stein has brought some new life to Kentucky. After the Mark Stoops era, it’s a welcome change.
The Wildcats have put resources into the roster, especially up front. That’s usually a good sign.
Projected Record: 5-7, 2-7 (SEC)
The schedule’s still a beast, but if the transfers gel, bowl eligibility isn’t out of the question. Stein’s confidence and the roster upgrades could push them to 5-7.
It’s not a huge leap, but it’s progress. That counts for something.
Playoff Ambitions: Kyle Whittingham at Michigan
Kyle Whittingham takes over at Michigan, and the bar is set high. Staying in the CFP mix is the expectation.
The schedule is tough, but quarterback Bryce Underwood could be a breakout star. Michigan wants to be a Big Ten contender, no doubt.
Projected Record: 8-4, 6-3 (Big Ten)
Whittingham’s style—physical and detail-oriented—should fit in Ann Arbor. With a strong defense and Underwood coming along, 8-4 is a reasonable goal.
Sticking in the CFP conversation into November would go a long way toward meeting those lofty expectations.
Rebuilding in East Lansing: Pat Fitzgerald at Michigan State
Pat Fitzgerald inherits a tough situation at Michigan State. The roster’s thin, and the schedule isn’t doing him any favors.
Fitzgerald’s first job is to toughen up the program and get things organized. That’s not glamorous, but it’s necessary.
Projected Record: 3-9, 1-8 (Big Ten)
November is going to be brutal, and there aren’t many proven playmakers. A 3-9 finish seems likely.
Still, if Fitzgerald can lay some groundwork, maybe things look better in a year or two.
High Hopes: Sean Morris at Oklahoma State
Sean Morris is shaking things up at Oklahoma State. After bringing in over 60 new players, there’s a lot of buzz—but also a lot of unknowns.
Chemistry and depth are big questions. But there’s upside if it all comes together.
Projected Record: 9-3, 7-2 (Big 12)
Morris’ offense could speed up the rebuild. If the new guys click, 9-3 isn’t out of the question.
The Cowboys could be the Big 12’s biggest surprise. Or not. That’s the fun—and risk—of a big overhaul.
Redemption in Happy Valley: Matt Campbell at Penn State
Matt Campbell gets a chance to help Penn State fans move on from the James Franklin era. The schedule is favorable, and he’s brought some familiar faces from Iowa State.
Immediate success is the goal. Campbell knows what he’s doing, and that should help.
Projected Record: 9-3, 6-3 (Big Ten)
Penn State’s got talent and experience, plus a schedule that’s not too daunting. A 9-3 season is very doable.
Honestly, anything short of a playoff push would sting. Campbell’s familiarity with his guys should help smooth the transition.
Complete Rebuild: David Pritchard at Stanford
David Pritchard is starting from scratch at Stanford. The focus is on getting competitive in the ACC and building an offensive identity.
General manager Andrew Luck is working to reshape the program completely.
Projected Record: 2-10, 0-9 (ACC)
With the schedule and roster as they are, 2-10 sounds about right. Bowl eligibility would be a shock, frankly.
The main thing is showing real progress and better execution each week. That’s the measuring stick for now.
Immediate Credibility: Bob Chesney at UCLA
Bob Chesney brings a jolt of credibility to UCLA after his run at James Madison. The Big Ten is a different animal, but there’s potential for a solid debut.
Managing the roster will be a bigger challenge than he’s faced before.
Projected Record: 7-5, 5-4 (Big Ten)
Chesney’s focus is on discipline, development, and belief. If his culture takes root quickly, 7-5 is within reach.
A bowl trip would be a strong start and give the Bruins something to build on.
Consistent Contenders: Morgan Scalley at Utah
Morgan Scalley steps up at Utah, where the expectation is to just keep winning. The Utes have experience and a strong culture already in place.
Staying near the top of the Big 12 is the goal, as always.
Projected Record: 10-2, 7-2 (Big 12)
Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin lead the offense, and Utah looks set for another 10-2 type season. Scalley knows the program inside and out, which should help keep things steady.
The Utes should be right in the thick of the conference race.
Renewed Commitment: James Franklin at Virginia Tech
James Franklin starts fresh at Virginia Tech, backed by strong support from the administration. There’s a real commitment to recruiting, roster building, and staffing.
Franklin’s got a shot to build something quickly with the resources in place. Expectations are high, and it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Projected Record: 8-4, 5-4 (ACC)
Franklin’s got his eyes on bringing back that old Lane Stadium magic. He wants to turn all the recent investment into real results—fast.
His knack for recruiting could make it easier to keep local stars in Blacksburg. If that works out, it could set up a nice run of success for the Hokies.
For a deeper dive and some extra takes, check out the full breakdown at CBS Sports.
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