The College Football Playoff (CFP) is expanding to 12 teams in 2024. Suddenly, programs that never stood a chance are eyeing a seat at the table.
This change is shaking up college football in a big way. Unranked teams can actually dream now—crazy, right?
USA Today just spotlighted five unranked squads that could crash the 2026 CFP party. Each one’s got its own story, some new faces, and schedules that might just work out in their favor.
Let’s take a look at these possible dark horses. It’s a wild list, honestly.
Oklahoma State: From Rock Bottom to Redemption
Oklahoma State had a rough go last season—their worst since 1991. Enter Eric Morris, their new head coach, and hope is back in Stillwater.
Morris led North Texas to the top of the FBS in scoring and total offense, so folks are expecting fireworks. The Cowboys brought in QB Drew Mestemaker, who threw for nearly 4,400 yards last year, and RB Caleb Hawkins, a freshman who somehow racked up 25 rushing TDs in 2025.
Key Factors for Success
The 2026 schedule looks pretty friendly. Even with a couple of losses, Oklahoma State might still sneak in.
If they end up 10-2, losing only to Oregon and Texas Tech, there’s a real shot at an at-large Playoff spot—even without a conference title.
- New Talent: Drew Mestemaker and Caleb Hawkins
- Favorable Schedule: Key matchups against Oregon and Texas Tech
- Coaching Overhaul: Eric Morris’ offensive expertise
TCU: A Return to Glory?
TCU might not be everyone’s first pick, but don’t sleep on them. They made it to the national championship game back in 2022, after all.
Coach Sonny Dykes has some solid pieces coming back, especially up front. The big news is dual-threat QB Jaden Craig transferring in from Harvard—he could really shake things up.
Path to the Playoff
The Big 12 schedule isn’t too intimidating this year. Texas Tech and BYU are tough, but after that? It’s wide open.
If TCU can get hot late in the season, who knows? They might just sneak into the Playoff conversation.
- Returning Talent: Strong offensive and defensive lines
- New Addition: Dual-threat QB Jaden Craig
- Manageable Schedule: Favorable Big 12 matchups
UNLV: The Mountain West Powerhouse
Dan Mullen took over at UNLV and things started clicking last year. They lost to Boise State in the Mountain West title game, but it still felt like a win for the program.
Now that Boise State’s jumped ship to the Pac-12, UNLV is the clear favorite in the Mountain West for 2026. That’s a weird sentence, but here we are.
Challenges and Opportunities
UNLV’s non-conference schedule is no joke—Cal, Memphis, and North Texas are all on the slate. The good news? Mullen and his staff have stuck around, which isn’t something every Group of 6 team can say.
If they survive those early matchups, they could be the top Group of 6 team on Selection Sunday. That means a Playoff bid could actually be in play.
- Coaching Stability: Dan Mullen’s leadership
- Key Matchups: Non-conference games against Cal, Memphis, and North Texas
- Mountain West Favorites: Boise State’s departure to the Pac-12
Louisville: The ACC Dark Horse
Louisville started hot in 2025, sitting at 7-1, but then things unraveled. Coach Jeff Brohm is back, though, and so are a lot of key players.
Running backs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown return, and now there’s former four-star QB Lincoln Kienholz, who transferred from Ohio State. If he figures it out, watch out.
Road to the ACC Championship
Louisville’s ACC schedule is about as good as you could hope for. They dodge Miami and Clemson this year, which is huge.
If they can take care of business in conference play, a CFP spot isn’t out of the question. Stranger things have happened.
- Returning Talent: RBs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown
- Key Player Development: QB Lincoln Kienholz
- Favorable Schedule: Avoids Miami and Clemson
Virginia Tech: Betting on Talent
Virginia Tech made waves by hiring James Franklin away from Penn State. The guy knows the Playoff scene.
Franklin’s already pulled a bunch of Penn State talent with him, including former four-star QB Ethan Grunkemeyer. That’s a big deal for the Hokies.
Challenges Ahead
The Hokies have a brutal schedule this year. There are road games at Clemson, Miami, and SMU looming large.
Still, betting on Virginia Tech is really a bet on their talent. This roster stacks up as one of the best in the conference, at least on paper.
If they somehow get through that gauntlet, who knows? Maybe they sneak into the CFP conversation and shock everyone.
- New Leadership: James Franklin’s CFP experience
- Key Additions: QB Ethan Grunkemeyer
- Tough Schedule: Road games against Clemson, Miami, and SMU
For more detailed insights, check out the original article on On3.
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