After a college football offseason packed with hype and anticipation, Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning has had a challenging year. It’s definitely affected the conversation around his NFL draft future.
Even with a rocky start, Manning’s shown some resilience and real improvement as the season moved along. Let’s take a closer look at why Manning chose to return to Texas, what people are saying about his NFL draft stock, and how his NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals have shifted.
Arch Manning’s Decision to Return for the 2026 Season
Arch Manning was once seen as a lock for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft. Instead of declaring, he’s decided to stick around at Texas for another season.
This choice comes after a year with more ups and downs than anyone expected, which muddied his draft outlook. Manning’s been open about feeling like he’s developed a lot, especially later in the season, and he thinks there’s more for him to do in college.
I felt like I developed a lot this year, especially towards the back half, and I want to keep it going, Manning told reporters on December 28, 2025, via Inside Texas’ Evan Vieth. There’s no reason to leave. I feel like I got a lot more football left to play, and excited to still be a part of this team.
Implications for the 2026 NFL Draft
Some scouts still think Manning could go No. 1 overall if he entered the 2026 draft. But his erratic season raised a few eyebrows.
One NFL scout told Fox Sports’ Ralph Vacchiano that Manning has the tools—size, arm, intangibles—but might just need more time to really put it all together. Sticking around for another year at Texas could give him the stability and growth he needs.
Fluctuations in NIL Valuation
This season, Manning’s NIL valuation has bounced around quite a bit. He started out with a projected $6.8 million but that’s dropped to $5.3 million—a $1.5 million dip.
Even with that drop, he’s still at the top of the heap for college athletes when it comes to marketability and NIL value. Not bad, right?
It’s worth mentioning, though, that most NIL deals aren’t public, and the numbers can swing based on weekly performances. The actual contracts Manning’s signed are probably for fixed amounts, so they’re not changing every time he has a rough game.
Notable NIL Deals
Manning’s managed to land some pretty big NIL deals with brands like:
- Uber
- Warby Parker
- Vuori
- Raising Cane’s
- Red Bull
- EA Sports
These partnerships show just how marketable he is and give him a solid financial cushion heading into another year at Texas.
Looking Ahead: The 2027 NFL Draft
The 2026 NFL draft picture is still pretty fuzzy, but looking ahead to 2027 is even trickier. Walter Football’s Charlie Campbell has already put out a way-too-early mock draft for 2027, pegging Manning as the No. 4 pick to the Cleveland Browns.
That projection suggests Manning’s still got plenty of time to boost his draft stock and prove he belongs among the top quarterbacks in the country.
Future Prospects and Development
Staying at Texas for another season seems like a smart move for Manning. He’ll get another shot at ironing out the inconsistencies that showed up this year.
At 6-foot-4 and 219 pounds, with a strong arm and those hard-to-define intangibles, he still looks like a promising prospect. It’ll be interesting to see how he develops from here.
Conclusion
Arch Manning’s 2025 college football season? It’s honestly been a wild ride. Early on, there were some rough patches, but he really turned things around toward the end.
Choosing to stick with Texas for another season says a lot about his drive. Not every player would double down on growth like that.
His NFL draft stock and NIL valuation have bounced up and down, which isn’t surprising in today’s college football world. Still, Manning stands out—he’s easily one of the most marketable and intriguing guys out there right now.
People are already buzzing about the 2026 NFL draft. Will he keep improving? Can he claw his way back to the top of those prospect lists? There’s a lot riding on this next year.
If you want to dig deeper into Manning’s draft outlook or NIL deals, check out Heavy.com.
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