Arch Manning, the highly-touted quarterback for the Texas Longhorns, has seen a significant decline in his NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) valuation this redshirt sophomore season. Once the highest-valued college football player with a valuation of $6.8 million, Manning’s performance just hasn’t matched the sky-high expectations.
His market value has dropped pretty sharply. Despite still holding the title of the highest-valued college athlete, his valuation has fallen by over a million dollars to $5.5 million.
Arch Manning’s Initial Valuation and Expectations
Coming into the season, Arch Manning wasn’t just a promising quarterback. He was a legacy player, and his valuation reflected both his potential and his last name.
With an initial NIL valuation of $6.8 million, Manning was the most valuable player in college football for 2025. He was also the top athlete across all college sports, which is wild when you think about it.
This high valuation was mostly fueled by his status as a former No. 1 prospect and as the starting quarterback for the preseason No. 1 team in the country. Talk about pressure.
The Decline Begins
The season started off rough for Manning with a loss at Ohio State. His next games against teams like San Jose State and UTEP didn’t do much to calm anyone’s nerves, either.
He failed to deliver those A or A+ level performances people expected. As a result, both his draft stock and NIL value started to slide.
Current Valuation and Performance Metrics
According to On3, Manning’s current valuation stands at $5.5 million. That’s a drop of $813,000 from his previous $6.3 million valuation.
This is a pretty big decline from his preseason $6.8 million. Still, Manning remains the highest-valued college football player and collegiate athlete in the On3 database.
Statistical Analysis
When evaluating quarterbacks, modern metrics like CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), EPA/Play (Expected Points Added per Play), and yards-per-dropback get tossed around a lot. But even the classic stats—pass completions, pass attempts, passing yards, touchdowns, and efficiency ratings—tell a story.
- Pass Completions: Manning ranks in the top 10 among SEC quarterbacks.
- Pass Completion Percentage: Not in the top 10.
- Pass Attempts: Not in the top 10.
- Passing Yards: Not in the top 10.
- Pass Yards Per Attempt: Not in the top 10.
- Passing Touchdowns: Not in the top 10.
- Passer Efficiency Rating: Not in the top 10.
Among the 16 starting SEC quarterbacks, Manning cracks the top 10 in just one category. He’s also in the top five for interceptions, which isn’t exactly the list you want to be on.
These stats are especially concerning since some of his games were against weaker competition like San Jose State and UTEP. You’d hope for a bit more dominance in those matchups.
Impact on Texas Longhorns
Manning’s performance has implications not just for his own career but for the Texas Longhorns as a whole. As the starting quarterback for a team that began the season ranked No. 1, his struggles have been hard to ignore.
Team Performance
The Longhorns’ season opener loss to Ohio State set a troubling tone. Games against teams like San Jose State and UTEP should’ve been chances for Manning to pad his stats and gain confidence.
Instead, his underwhelming play in these matchups has raised questions about his ability to lead the team. It’s not the narrative anyone wanted heading into conference play.
Future Prospects
Even with the current dip in his valuation and performance, Arch Manning still has time to turn things around. His pedigree and potential are hard to ignore, and a few big games could flip the script pretty quickly.
Steps for Improvement
For Manning to get back on track, a few things seem obvious:
- Consistency: He needs to put together solid performances, especially against teams he’s expected to beat.
- Decision-Making: Cutting down on interceptions and making smarter plays would go a long way.
- Leadership: As the starting quarterback, showing stronger leadership on and off the field is crucial.
There’s still time. Addressing these areas could help both Manning and the Longhorns get back on course this season.
Conclusion
Arch Manning’s season has been a real rollercoaster. High hopes, some tough moments, and a ton of eyes on him—it’s a lot for anyone.
His NIL valuation has dropped, which isn’t great. Still, he’s holding onto the top spot among college athletes, and honestly, that says something about his potential.
There’s a chance for him to bounce back if he zeroes in on the right things. Can he meet those sky-high expectations? Well, that’s the big question, isn’t it?
If you want a deeper dive into Manning’s numbers and performance, check out the full article here.
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