The Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-4) are set to face off against the South Alabama Jaguars (1-5) in Mobile, Alabama. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
South Alabama comes in as a 7-point favorite with a -275 moneyline. Arkansas State is a 7-point underdog at +230, and the over/under sits at 57.5 points.
Let’s dig into what matters for this matchup—team form, betting angles, and a few predictions that might actually help you out.
Arkansas State’s Struggles and Betting Insights
Arkansas State just snapped a four-game losing streak with a squeaker over Texas State. Still, the Red Wolves have looked shaky, especially on defense.
They’re giving up 5.8 yards per carry and 7.2 yards per play. Not great—actually, it’s among the worst in the Sun Belt Conference.
Against FBS teams, they’ve allowed 500 yards per game. That’s a rough stat when you’re heading on the road to play a team that’s desperate for a win.
Offensive Woes
The Red Wolves aren’t exactly lighting it up on offense, either. Before last week’s win, they were putting up just 16.8 points per game against FBS opponents.
The offensive line’s been a problem. They struggle to protect the quarterback and avoid negative plays, so the run game is stuck at just 3.45 yards per carry.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor is hitting 67% of his passes, but it hasn’t been enough to spark the offense or flip momentum.
Betting Perspective
If you’re looking at bets, Arkansas State’s team total under 26.5 points seems reasonable. They haven’t been consistent on third downs or in the red zone.
South Alabama’s defense, especially in pass coverage, is solid—allowing only 169 yards per game through the air. That’s not a great matchup for Arkansas State’s struggling offense.
South Alabama’s Season of ‘What Ifs’
South Alabama’s year has been, well, frustrating. They’re 1-5, but it feels like they’ve had a shot in more games than their record shows.
They played Tulane close in Week 2 and hung in there with Auburn. Then came a brutal 31-point second-half collapse against Coastal Carolina. That pretty much sums up their season—so many “almosts.”
Ground Game Revival
The Jaguars’ run game is finally showing up, though. They’ve rushed for over 200 yards in each of their last three games.
Kentrel Bullock has been a difference-maker at running back, and he could have a field day against Arkansas State’s leaky run defense. Quarterback Bishop Davenport might also open things up with play-action and take some shots downfield.
Defensive Challenges
Defense hasn’t been a strength for South Alabama, either. The pass rush is almost missing in action, with just seven sacks all season.
Missed tackles have let opponents string together scoring drives. Still, this matchup gives the Jaguars a shot to get things right and maybe erase the sting of last year’s 18-16 loss to Arkansas State.
Key Points to Watch
- Arkansas State’s Defensive Struggles: The Red Wolves have been one of the worst defensive units in the Sun Belt. They’re allowing a staggering 500 yards per game against FBS teams.
- South Alabama’s Ground Game: The Jaguars have rushed for over 200 yards in each of their last three games. Running back Kentrel Bullock could be set for a huge night.
- Betting Insights: The best bet might be taking Arkansas State’s team total under 26.5 points. Their offense has had issues, and South Alabama’s pass defense is no joke.
For more detailed analysis and expert picks, you can check out the Action Network.
Honestly, this matchup feels like one where both teams are desperate to prove something. South Alabama’s looking to get back on track, while Arkansas State wants to keep their momentum going.
ESPN2 has the game at 7:30 p.m. ET, live from Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. Should be a good one—are you tuning in?
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