The Buffalo Bulls are set to face off against the Central Michigan Chippewas in what could be a pretty lively college football matchup on Wednesday, November 12. The game’s happening in Mount Pleasant, Michigan, with kickoff at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Central Michigan is favored by 1.5 points. The over/under sits at 44 total points.
Buffalo Bulls: Overcoming the Odds
The Bulls walk in as a +1.5 underdog, with a moneyline of +100. Their 5-4 record might look decent at first glance, but honestly, their stats don’t quite back it up.
Most of their wins have come against weaker teams like Kent State, Bowling Green, UMass, and Akron—and even those were close calls. Offensively, Buffalo sits 99th in EPA Per Pass and a brutal 128th in EPA Per Rush. That’s rough.
Offensive Struggles
Buffalo’s offense just can’t seem to get it together for long stretches. They’re 134th in third- and fourth-down success rate, converting only 31.8% of the time.
That means they’re often stuck in tough spots, chasing long yardage. Early-downs don’t look much better, either—they rank 95th nationally, so third downs are usually a headache.
Defensive Metrics
On defense, Buffalo looks okay on paper, ranking 58th in EPA Per Pass allowed and 50th in EPA Per Rush allowed. But, if we’re being honest, those numbers are padded by their soft schedule.
Whenever they face a more balanced team, some cracks start to show, especially if they lose the field-position battle. That’s something Central Michigan could easily take advantage of.
Central Michigan Chippewas: The Favored Team
Central Michigan comes in as the favorite at -120 on the moneyline. Their underlying stats, especially on defense, are just stronger.
They’re 53rd against the pass in EPA allowed and 44th on early downs. Buffalo, meanwhile, struggles in both those areas.
Sure, Central Michigan’s run defense isn’t perfect, but Buffalo’s ground game doesn’t really have the punch to exploit that.
Defensive Strengths
Central Michigan’s defense has a knack for putting teams in tough spots, forcing long-yardage situations. They’re about average at getting off the field, but that’s probably enough against Buffalo.
If they can keep the Bulls in third-and-long, they’ll be in good shape.
Offensive Efficiency
Offensively, Central Michigan ranks 35th nationally in EPA Per Pass. Their passing game has been more productive than expected, honestly.
Quarterback play has been a pleasant surprise, and they’re pretty good at keeping drives alive. That kind of consistency could let them dictate the pace and keep Buffalo’s defense scrambling.
Key Matchup Factors
There are a few things that could swing this game one way or the other:
- Field Position: Buffalo’s issues here might give Central Michigan a real advantage.
- Turnover Margin: Both sides need to hang onto the ball, but Buffalo’s tendency to rely on turnovers against weaker teams could bite them this time.
- Third-Down Efficiency: If Central Michigan keeps Buffalo in third-and-long, that could be the difference.
- Early-Down Success: Central Michigan usually does better on early downs, which keeps them out of trouble later.
Prediction and Betting Advice
Honestly, it feels like Central Michigan has the edge here. Buffalo’s record looks better than it should, and their underlying numbers don’t inspire much confidence against a more balanced Chippewas squad.
Betting Pick
If you’re looking to place a bet, Central Michigan covering the spread seems like the play. They’re favored by 1.5 points, and I’d be comfortable with that line up to -2.5.
The Chippewas’ stronger stats, better early-down performance, and the home crowd make them the more trustworthy pick.
Final Thoughts
This game feels like a classic regression spot for Buffalo. Their record looks better on paper than it probably should.
Heading into November, playing on the road against a gritty Central Michigan squad isn’t ideal. The Chippewas are tough and seem to shine in all the right areas.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Central Michigan grabs an early lead. Their offense is efficient, and their defense tends to jump on chances when they come up.
For more detailed analysis and expert picks, visit our source.
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