In the 2025 college football season, the gap between good and elite teams has narrowed. This has led to a surge in upsets and some truly unexpected performances.
ESPN’s SP+ advanced ranking system backs this up, highlighting just how competitive the sport’s gotten. The SP+ metric, which looks at team efficiency on offense, defense, and special teams, now shows the difference between the top-ranked team and those in the late teens is only a single score.
That’s a big change from past years, where the gap was much wider. Honestly, it almost feels like every week could deliver a surprise.
The Tightening Gap in College Football
By the midpoint of the 2025 season, ESPN’s SP+ ranking system makes it clear—college football’s landscape has shifted. The Ohio State Buckeyes, sitting at the top, have an SP+ rating of 27.6.
Meanwhile, the 17th-ranked LSU Tigers are at 19.5. So if they met on a neutral field, the Buckeyes would only be expected to win by a touchdown.
Compare that to 2019, when the top teams had a three-score cushion. It’s a whole new world.
Impact of NIL on Team Quality
Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals have changed the game. More teams can now attract top talent, which is making things a lot more even.
Teams ranked from No. 9 to No. 25 are stronger than ever, and the very top teams aren’t quite as dominant as before. It’s hard not to wonder just how much more balanced things will get.
Implications for the College Football Playoff
This tighter gap has big implications for the College Football Playoff (CFP). With the field expanding to 12 teams, unpredictability is basically guaranteed.
Just look at some of this season’s projected matchups, which are about as close as it gets:
- Notre Dame vs. USC: Notre Dame is only a three-point favorite.
- Georgia vs. Ole Miss: The difference? One point.
- Alabama vs. Tennessee: Just a two-point spread.
- Vanderbilt vs. LSU: Too close to call.
- Utah vs. BYU: Another toss-up.
More Upsets and Parity
With margins this slim, upsets are more common. Teams that used to be seen as mid-tier now have a real shot against the so-called elites.
It’s made the season a lot more exciting—and, honestly, a bit nerve-wracking if you care about the favorites.
The Role of SP+ in Predicting Outcomes
ESPN’s SP+ ranking system has become a go-to for predicting games. It doesn’t just look backward; it’s a forward-looking metric that tries to capture what a team can do right now.
That’s especially handy in a season where things are so tightly contested. It’s not perfect, but it’s probably the best we’ve got.
Teams to Watch
Some teams are really packed together in the rankings. The Texas A&M Aggies, at No. 5 with a 22.2 rating, are in a group with Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Missouri, Notre Dame, Texas, and Tennessee—all separated by just a point.
Then you’ve got Georgia, Alabama, USC, and Miami, whose ratings are almost identical, ranging from 20.5 to 20.8. Anyone’s game, really.
Looking Ahead
The numbers suggest the best teams in 2025 just aren’t as dominant as their 2019 counterparts. Meanwhile, teams ranked No. 9-25 have made huge strides.
Don’t be surprised if more three-loss teams sneak into the playoff this year. That’s just where college football seems to be heading—and honestly, it’s a lot more fun this way.
Conclusion
The 2025 college football season looks like it could be wild. There’s just not much space between the top teams and the rest anymore.
NIL deals and the latest SP+ rankings are shaking things up. We might see more upsets and closer games than we’ve had in years.
Honestly, that’s what keeps college football fun. Who wants a predictable playoff race, anyway?
If you want to dig deeper, check out the full article on OutKick.
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