College Football Playoff Semifinals: Expert Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets

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As we step into the wild atmosphere of the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinals, it’s time to break down the best bets, picks, and predictions. There’s a lot to consider before putting money on the line.

Our analysis digs into the key matchups and betting trends shaping this postseason. With insights from Tuley’s Takes—a voice bettors trust—we’re here with a real preview of what’s ahead, from underdogs to favorites and everything in between.

Let’s get into the pivotal factors that could swing the results and maybe help you make smarter bets.

CFP Semifinal/Fiesta Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Miami (FL)

The first semifinal gives us the #6 Mississippi Rebels against the #4 Miami Hurricanes in the Fiesta Bowl on January 8. This one’s getting plenty of buzz, especially after Miami’s earlier upsets.

Miami’s Underdog Journey

Miami came into the CFP as a bit of a dark horse. Then they stunned everyone by knocking off #7 Texas A&M and #2 Ohio State.

Nick Saban even called Miami the most dangerous team in the playoffs—he might’ve been onto something. Quarterback Carson Beck has been key, showing off his experience and leadership when it matters.

Mississippi’s Resilience

Mississippi’s story is just as interesting. They kept rolling even after coach Lane Kiffin left, blowing out Tulane 41-10 and then upsetting #3 Georgia 39-34.

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Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss really stepped up, especially in that Georgia game. He threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns, which is no small feat.

Looking at the betting lines, Ole Miss catches the eye as an underdog at +3.5. Their knack for performing under pressure—and Chambliss’s hot streak—makes them a tough matchup for Miami.

CFP Semifinal/Peach Bowl: Indiana vs. Oregon

The other semifinal has the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers taking on the Oregon Ducks in the Peach Bowl on January 9. This one looks like a defensive slugfest in the making.

Indiana’s Dominance

Indiana hasn’t lost all season, knocking off both Ohio State and Alabama along the way. Their defense has been lights out, holding Ohio State to just 10 points in the Big Ten title game and limiting Alabama to only 3 in the quarters.

While their offense can fly, it’s Indiana’s defense that’s been shutting teams down all year.

Oregon’s Defensive Prowess

Oregon had a stumble against James Madison, but overall, their defense has been solid. Shutting out Texas Tech 23-0 in the quarterfinals really drove that point home.

The Ducks will need every bit of that defense to slow down Indiana’s attack.

The total points line sits at 47. Betting the Under feels like a smart move here. Both teams lean on defense, so a lower score seems likely.

Something like 24-17 Indiana wouldn’t be shocking, and that fits with the trend of low-scoring playoff games lately.

Betting Trends and Insights

Looking at the bowl games and CFP playoffs, some betting trends stand out. Favorites have mostly done well, going 23-12 straight up and 19-16 against the spread in bowl games.

But in the CFP playoffs, underdogs have actually had the edge—5-3 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. That’s worth keeping in mind.

Unders Dominating Totals

Unders have been the story in total points betting. They finished 21-14 in regular bowl games and 5-3 in the first two CFP playoff rounds.

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That trend lines up with the Indiana vs. Oregon matchup, where most folks expect another low-scoring battle.

Expert Picks and Predictions

So, based on the lines right now, here are the expert picks for the CFP semifinals:

  • Ole Miss +3.5: The Rebels have been tough and clutch under pressure, so they’re a tempting underdog against Miami.
  • Under 47 (Indiana vs. Oregon): Both defenses are legit, making a low total feel like the right call.

If you want more analysis or extra betting tips, check out the VSiN College Football Bowl Game hub.

Conclusion

The CFP semifinals are almost here, and there’s a lot to think about. Key factors and betting trends might end up shifting the outcomes in ways we don’t expect.

Miami and Mississippi are heading into the Fiesta Bowl, and honestly, that matchup could go in a few directions. Both teams have something to prove, and it’s tough to call who’ll come out on top.

Over in the Peach Bowl, Indiana and Oregon look ready for a showdown that’s probably going to be all about defense. If you’re planning to bet, it’s worth keeping an eye on the latest expert takes and any last-minute news.

Joe Hughes
Joe Hughes is the founder of CollegeNetWorth.com, a comprehensive resource on college athletes' earnings potential in the NIL era. Combining his passion for sports with expertise in collegiate athletics, Joe provides valuable insights for athletes, fans, and institutions navigating this new landscape.

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