The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are gearing up to take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. This college football matchup is set for Wednesday, October 29, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Jacksonville State comes in favored by 6 points, holding a moneyline of -230. Middle Tennessee is a +6 underdog, with a moneyline of +185. The over/under sits at 54.5 points.
Jacksonville State’s offense is a bit of a mixed bag. Their passing game is pretty rough, ranking 125th in EPA Per Pass.
On the flip side, their running game is a real bright spot—seventh nationally in EPA Per Rush at 0.19. That could matter a lot against a Middle Tennessee defense that’s top 35 in that same stat.
There’s a wrinkle, though: quarterback Caden Creel is questionable after injuring his non-throwing arm’s UCL. That could throw a wrench in their plans.
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee: Game Overview
The Gamecocks lean hard on their ground attack. With the air game sputtering, it makes sense—they’re going to run and run often.
They convert on 47.4% of third- and fourth-down tries, which lands them 52nd in the country. But Middle Tennessee allows that same conversion rate, so their defense isn’t exactly shutting teams down on late downs.
Still, the Blue Raiders have a reputation for making things tough when it counts. That could neutralize Jacksonville State’s biggest strength.
Jacksonville State’s defense is banged up, with linebackers Isaac Walker and Mac Sanders and defensive lineman Talan Carter all questionable or out. That opens the door for Middle Tennessee’s offense, which honestly, could use the help.
Middle Tennessee’s Game Plan
The Blue Raiders’ offense faces a Jacksonville State defense that’s pretty average overall. The Gamecocks are 77th in EPA Per Pass allowed, while Middle Tennessee’s passing offense is 95th.
Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato needs to step up. The Blue Raiders were close to pulling off a win against Delaware, but consistency is still an issue.
Challenges and Opportunities
The real headache for Middle Tennessee is their ground game. Jacksonville State’s rush defense gives up -0.05 EPA Per Rush, while Middle Tennessee’s own run game is stuck at -0.13—one of the worst in FBS.
But here’s a twist: Jacksonville State gives up 45.3% of available yards, which isn’t great. Maybe, just maybe, the Blue Raiders can string together some drives if things break their way.
Third downs are a sore spot for Middle Tennessee, though. They’re usually stuck with 7.5 yards to go, which is 113th in the country. That’s a tough spot against a Jacksonville State defense that’s tough late in downs.
If the Blue Raiders can avoid getting behind the chains, they’ve got a shot to put points up. It’s a big “if,” but not impossible.
Betting Insights and Predictions
The Middle Tennessee defense is the wild card here. Their overall stats don’t look great, but they know how to slow down teams that rely on the run—exactly what Jacksonville State wants to do.
Why Middle Tennessee Could Cover the Spread
Middle Tennessee has been more competitive than their record lets on. They force teams into long third downs and limit big gains, which tends to keep things close, especially against run-heavy opponents.
The line feels a bit high for a Jacksonville State squad that’s shaky when their passing game isn’t working. Middle Tennessee’s defense should keep things within reach.
Even with some injuries at receiver, the Blue Raiders are scrappy enough to trade possessions and keep this one tight. Whether Creel plays or not, grabbing Middle Tennessee with the points at home feels like a decent play.
If you’re looking for more detailed predictions and betting angles, check out the full analysis on Action Network.
Conclusion
This Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee matchup looks like it could go either way. Jacksonville State leans heavily on their rushing game, but nobody’s really sure what to expect from their quarterback situation.
Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee’s defense has shown flashes of strength. They’ve managed to hang in there even when things get tough, which might help them cover the spread.
Remember to check for injury updates and keep an eye on the betting lines before kickoff. If you want the latest info, head over to Action Network.
Honestly, this one’s got all the ingredients for a fun, unpredictable game—definitely worth tuning in if you’re into college football.
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