The Kansas State Wildcats are heading to Tucson, Arizona, for a Friday night showdown against the Arizona Wildcats on September 12. Kickoff’s at 9 p.m. ET on FOX, which feels like the perfect stage for a matchup that’s got plenty of folks buzzing.
Kansas State is rolling in as a slight favorite, but Arizona’s got home field and plenty of swagger. Let’s break down what’s at stake—betting odds, team vibes, and some predictions that might surprise you.
Betting Odds and Key Insights
Right now, Kansas State is a 1-point favorite on the spread. The moneyline’s at -115 for them, while Arizona sits just behind at -105.
The over/under is set at 54.5. Oddsmakers are clearly expecting a tight, maybe even wild, contest.
Kansas State Wildcats: Struggling to Find Form
Kansas State’s 2025 season hasn’t exactly gone to plan. They’re sitting at 1-2 and could really use a win to even up their conference record.
That recent loss to Army, as huge home favorites, stung. The team’s been shaky on both sides of the ball, and honestly, it’s tough to tell if they’re ready for a tough road test.
- Defensive Woes: They’ve been decent in Defensive Line Yards and Points Per Opportunity, but explosive plays have burned them. Their Rush EPA/Play is below average, which isn’t great news against Arizona’s ground attack.
- Offensive Inconsistencies: Quarterback Avery Johnson’s been efficient at times, but the offense leans hard on big plays. Missing running back Dylan Edwards and lineman George Fitzpatrick just makes things even trickier.
Arizona Wildcats: A Promising Start
Arizona, on the other hand, has started 2025 with a spark. Sure, they haven’t faced the toughest opponents yet, but there’s a new energy under offensive coordinator Seth Doege.
The offense is fast, aggressive, and honestly, pretty fun to watch. They’re itching to prove themselves against a team like Kansas State.
- Offensive Strength: Quarterback Noah Fifita is settling in nicely. Doege’s system seems to fit him, and Arizona’s got weapons both on the ground and through the air.
- Defensive Prowess: Arizona’s secondary? Arguably one of the best in the Big 12. They’ve been excellent at limiting big pass plays, which could really matter here.
Key Matchup: Kansas State Defense vs. Arizona Offense
This game might come down to how Kansas State’s defense holds up against Arizona’s attack. Kansas State’s struggled stopping the run and giving up chunk plays.
Meanwhile, Arizona’s offense has been humming along, mixing things up with balance and some clever play-calling.
Stopping the Run
Kansas State absolutely has to tighten up against the run. Arizona’s been tough on the ground, and if the visitors can’t plug those gaps, it could get ugly fast.
Improving up front is non-negotiable if they want to slow down Arizona’s tempo and control the game at all.
Exploiting Weaknesses
Noah Fifita and the Arizona offense have a real shot at exposing Kansas State’s soft spots. Too many explosive plays allowed—that’s been the story for the Wildcats’ defense.
Arizona’s uptempo style is built to take advantage, and if Fifita’s on his game, Kansas State could be chasing all night.
Injuries and Their Impact
Injuries have done Kansas State no favors. Without Dylan Edwards and George Fitzpatrick, their offense just hasn’t found a rhythm.
They’ve had to gamble on big plays, but against a sturdy Arizona defense, that’s a risky way to live.
Offensive Line Concerns
Losing Fitzpatrick on the line is a gut punch. Protection and consistent running were issues even before—now, it’s a real concern.
If the line can’t hold up, it’s hard to see Kansas State establishing much of anything.
Arizona’s Defensive Strength
Arizona’s defense, especially the secondary, has been a bright spot. They’ve made a habit of shutting down big pass plays.
It’s a tough unit to crack, and Friday’s game will be a real test of whether they’re the real deal in the Big 12.
Arizona Team Total Over 27.5
One of the best bets for this game is Arizona’s team total over 27.5. Kansas State’s defense has been shaky lately, and Arizona’s offense has looked sharp and efficient.
Arizona likes to push the tempo. Kansas State just can’t seem to stop those explosive plays, which makes this over feel pretty tempting.
If you want to dig deeper, check out the Action Network’s comprehensive preview. The game kicks off Friday, September 12, at 9 p.m. ET on FOX—should be a good one.
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