The 2026-27 College Football Playoff (CFP) season is already stirring up plenty of chatter. The playoffs will stick with a 12-team field, even as people keep tossing around ideas for more expansion.
The “To Miss The College Football Playoff” betting market is especially interesting right now. Fans and bettors are watching closely to see which big-name programs might stumble and miss out.
Here’s something that caught folks off guard: LSU has opened as a favorite to miss the playoffs in Lane Kiffin’s first year as head coach. They aren’t the only ones facing doubters, though.
So, what do the latest odds and expert takes say about how this season could shake out?
LSU’s Surprising Odds to Miss the CFP
LSU’s usually a safe bet in college football, but Lane Kiffin’s arrival brings a lot of question marks. According to Fox Sports, LSU is sitting at -190 to miss the CFP.
Basically, if you want to bet on LSU missing out, you’d have to risk $190 to win $100. Not exactly a bargain.
Challenges Ahead for LSU
The Tigers have a few hurdles that might explain those odds. Switching to a new coaching staff is always a bit messy, and Kiffin’s got to prove he can handle the SEC pressure cooker right away.
LSU will also need to shore up some key positions and keep their usual high standards if they want a shot at the playoffs. Nothing’s guaranteed.
Other Powerhouses Facing Major Skepticism
LSU isn’t the only blue blood on shaky ground. Alabama and Michigan—usually playoff staples—are also expected to miss out, at least according to the oddsmakers.
Alabama comes in at -185, while Michigan’s even less favored at -350. Both have some tough roads ahead.
Alabama’s Roadblocks
The Tide lost Ty Simpson to the NFL, and their rushing game was pretty rough last season—126th in yards per carry. That’s not going to cut it if they want to get back to the top.
Michigan’s New Era
Michigan’s starting over with a whole new coaching staff, including offensive coordinator Jason Becht. Bryce Underwood is back at quarterback, but can the team really click fast enough to make a run?
Big Ten’s Dominance in the CFP Picture
On the other side, the Big Ten looks set to run the show this year. Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon are all getting early love from the oddsmakers.
Indiana’s Strong Position
Indiana just won the national championship and wasted no time reloading via the transfer portal. They brought in former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover to fill the shoes of Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza.
That move keeps them in the thick of the playoff hunt. Not a bad spot to be in.
Ohio State and Oregon’s Prospects
Ohio State gets quarterback Julian Sayin and star wideout Jeremiah Smith back, which makes them a real threat. Oregon, with Dante Moore at QB, looks pretty stacked too.
Notre Dame: The Team to Watch
Notre Dame’s got the best odds to make the CFP, which is making people pay attention. Even after losing Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to the NFL, the Fighting Irish return Heisman hopeful CJ Carr and four starters on the offensive line.
Their defense? Supposed to be one of the best in the country. That’s a pretty solid foundation.
Key Players for Notre Dame
CJ Carr is a massive asset, and how he plays could make or break their season. Having those veteran linemen back gives him some breathing room, too.
Latest Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
FanDuel Sportsbook dropped the latest odds on May 6, and they paint an interesting picture of who’s expected to miss or make the CFP.
- USC: -360 (bet $10 to win $12.78 total)
- Michigan: -350 (bet $10 to win $12.86 total)
- Oklahoma: -300 (bet $10 to win $13.33 total)
- Ole Miss: -220 (bet $10 to win $14.55 total)
- LSU: -190 (bet $10 to win $15.26 total)
- Alabama: -185 (bet $10 to win $15.41 total)
- Texas A&M: -160 (bet $10 to win $16.25 total)
- Texas Tech: +130 (bet $10 to win $23 total)
- Texas: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)
- Georgia: +180 (bet $10 to win $28 total)
- Ohio State: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
- Oregon: +220 (bet $10 to win $32 total)
- Miami (FL): +230 (bet $10 to win $33 total)
- Indiana: +260 (bet $10 to win $36 total)
- Notre Dame: +470 (bet $10 to win $57 total)
These odds really show just how much uncertainty and excitement there is heading into the season. Some teams have a lot to prove, and honestly, who knows how it’ll all shake out?
Conclusion
The 2026-27 College Football Playoff season is shaping up to be a wild ride. There’s a real sense of unpredictability in the air.
LSU, Alabama, and Michigan have some tough hills to climb. Indiana, Ohio State, and Notre Dame, though, look ready to make some noise.
If you’re the betting type, the odds might catch your eye, but let’s be honest—anything can happen once the games kick off. Want to dive deeper? Check out the full article on Fox Sports for all the details and latest updates.
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