In a highly anticipated matchup, the Michigan State Spartans head to Los Angeles for a late-night showdown with the USC Trojans on September 20, 2025. Both teams are undefeated, but USC is favored by a pretty big margin.
Still, some experts think the Spartans could cover the spread, considering how they’ve played lately and the expected tempo. So, let’s dig into this Big Ten clash and see if Michigan State might just surprise us.
Michigan State vs. USC: A Clash of Undefeated Teams
USC has steamrolled through its first three games, holding a 3-0 record and outscoring opponents 165 to 50. Their offense is ranked second in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, and their defense sits at an impressive 11th.
That said, their only real test so far came against Purdue. USC won 33-17 but didn’t cover the 20.5-point spread, which got people wondering if they might stumble against stronger teams.
Michigan State’s Resilience
Michigan State has also started strong, matching USC’s 3-0 record. Head coach Jonathan Smith seems to have made a difference, and quarterback Aidan Chiles has been a steady leader.
Chiles, with his Pac-12 experience, should be comfortable playing out west. That’s not something you can always count on with a Midwest team making that trip.
Betting Insights: Why Michigan State Could Cover the Spread
USC is a hefty 18.5-point favorite, but here are a few reasons to think the Spartans could keep it closer:
- Travel and Experience: Both Smith and Chiles know the Pac-12 well, so the long trip shouldn’t rattle them much.
- Slow Pace of Play: Neither team plays fast. USC ranks 107th and Michigan State 119th in plays per minute. Fewer plays means fewer chances to rack up points.
- Defensive Strategy: Michigan State’s run defense is tough, giving up just 2.6 yards per carry, but their secondary is shaky. This could push USC to throw more, but that doesn’t always mean more points on the board.
- Key Injuries: Michigan State’s top receiver Nick Marsh might not play, and running back Makhi Frazier is banged up. That could mean more work for Chiles, who can make things happen with his legs.
Key Players to Watch
USC’s Waymond Jordan is a name to watch, but with Michigan State’s run defense, betting on him to go under 77.5 rushing yards feels pretty reasonable. For Michigan State, Aidan Chiles could be the difference-maker, especially if he’s asked to do more because of Frazier’s injury.
Honestly, a bet on Chiles to score an anytime touchdown is tempting.
Game Predictions and Betting Tips
Here are the picks that stand out for this one:
- Spread: Michigan State +18.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Under 55.5
- Player Prop: Waymond Jordan Under 77.5 rushing yards
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Aidan Chiles
Why the Under is a Safe Bet
This game should move at a crawl, so the Under 55.5 looks pretty appealing. Both teams rank low in plays per minute, so there just aren’t that many chances to score.
Plus, USC has hit the Under in four of its last five Big Ten games. That stat alone makes you think twice about betting the Over, doesn’t it?
Final Thoughts
USC is expected to win this game and move to a 4-0 record.
Still, Michigan State has a good shot at covering the 18.5-point spread. The Spartans’ resilience, plus the slow pace and some key injuries, make them a tougher matchup than you might think.
For more detailed analysis and betting trends, check out the original article on Covers.com.
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