The Cheez-It Citrus Bowl is almost here, and it’s shaping up to be a real showdown. No. 18 Michigan Wolverines square off against the No. 14 Texas Longhorns, and there’s no shortage of storylines.
This New Year’s Eve matchup brings some juicy quarterback intrigue, a coaching shakeup, and a handful of key player opt-outs. Both teams finished the season 9-3. It’s hard not to expect a tight, gritty contest in Orlando’s Camping World Stadium.
Let’s break down what each team brings to the table: the strengths, the weak spots, and a few things you might want to keep an eye on.
Texas Longhorns: A Season of Highs and Lows
Head Coach Steve Sarkisian led the Longhorns through a rollercoaster of a year. Texas finished 9-3, flashing moments of brilliance, though they hit more than a few speed bumps.
Offensive Performance
Texas’ offense landed at 38th nationally — not bad, but not exactly lighting the SEC on fire. The Longhorns could break off explosive plays, but consistency was a problem.
They posted a 40.5% offensive success rate (91st), and too often found themselves stuck behind schedule on standard downs. The passing game could be electric, ranking 8th in yards per successful dropback. But overall, it was only 82nd in passing success rate, so the fireworks didn’t always translate to steady production.
- 38th in SP+ offensive ranking
- 91st in overall offensive success rate
- 8th in yards per successful dropback
Defensive Backbone
The defense was the real foundation for Texas, finishing 20th in Defensive SP+. They were tough against the run, and rarely gave up easy yards when it mattered.
Texas ranked 18th in rushing success rate allowed and 7th in EPA per rush. That front seven could really set the tone early. The pass rush was decent, but the havoc numbers weren’t eye-popping, especially from the defensive line.
- 20th in Defensive SP+
- 18th in rushing success rate allowed
- 7th in EPA per rush
Michigan Wolverines: A Defense-Driven Season
Michigan, under Head Coach Biff Poggi, finished with the same 9-3 record. Their season felt a lot like Texas’ — competitive, but defined by defense.
Offensive Overview
Michigan’s offense checked in at 53rd in SP+. Efficient? Sure, but rarely overwhelming. The Wolverines leaned on their ground game, ranking 14th in rushing success rate and 14th in yards per rush.
The air attack was more hit-and-miss — big plays, but not a ton of reliability. Fourth-down conversions were a real issue, as they finished a rough 136th in that category. Drives stalled out a little too often, even when things looked promising.
- 53rd in SP+ offensive ranking
- 14th in rushing success rate
- 136th in fourth-down conversion rate
Defensive Dominance
This defense was Michigan’s calling card, ending up 12th in Defensive SP+. They were disruptive, ranking 5th in pressure rate and 17th in yards per play allowed.
The secondary could clamp down when it counted, coming in 3rd in yards per successful dropback. It’s a group that played with discipline and just the right touch of aggression.
- 12th in Defensive SP+
- 5th in pressure rate
- 3rd in yards per successful dropback
Key Matchups and Player Opt-Outs
Both squads are dealing with opt-outs, but Texas is really feeling it — they’re missing seven of their eleven defensive starters. That’s a lot of holes to patch up in a bowl game.
Keep an eye on Michigan’s freshman WR Andrew Marsh. He’s been a spark since joining the starting lineup, and he’ll have a chance to take advantage of Texas’ depleted secondary.
- Texas missing 7 of 11 defensive starters
- Michigan WR Andrew Marsh key player to watch
Betting Insights
DraftKings has Texas as the favorite: moneyline at -290, with Michigan at +235. The spread’s set at Texas -7, and the over/under sits at 48.5 points.
Even with Michigan’s coaching situation up in the air, their roster looks deep enough to make this interesting, especially with Texas’ defense missing so many pieces.
- Moneyline: Texas (-290), Michigan (+235)
- Spread: Texas -7
- Total: 48.5 points
Expert Picks
Most experts are leaning toward Michigan, at least against the spread — they like the Wolverines +7. Some are even tempted by Michigan on the moneyline, but there’s not much love for betting the total points.
- Moneyline: Favor Michigan
- Spread: Bet on Michigan +7
- Total: Avoid betting on the total points
Want to dig deeper or check the latest odds? Head over to NBC Sports for more analysis and updates.
Conclusion
The Cheez-It Citrus Bowl is shaping up to be a wild clash. Both teams seem pretty well-matched, at least on paper.
Texas is dealing with some big holes in their defense. Michigan, meanwhile, brings a tough defensive unit that could really make things interesting.
Honestly, the whole game might come down to a few key plays. Maybe even just one or two standout moments from individual players.
If you’re watching, or thinking about betting, it’s worth keeping an eye on those shifting dynamics. New Year’s Eve could get a little unpredictable.
Want more updates and takes? Our betting analysts are on social media, and the blog’s always rolling with fresh college football coverage.
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