The landscape of college basketball seems poised for a shake-up. The NCAA is rumored to be considering expanding the March Madness tournament. That’s a big deal, especially for mid-major schools that have always had a tough time keeping up with the Power 4 conference giants.
Sure, expansion could open new doors for these smaller programs. But let’s be real—Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) disparities and the transfer portal might throw a wrench into those hopes. It’s a lot to unpack for the future of college hoops.
NCAA’s Potential March Madness Expansion
Ross Dellenger of On3 reports that the NCAA is actively weighing a bigger March Madness. The NCAA’s president, Charlie Baker, said back in August that there’d be no expansion for 2025-26. Still, there’s buzz about a possible change as soon as 2027.
Right now, 68 teams make the cut, with eight of them battling it out in the “First Four” to join the main 64-team bracket. The proposed move would bump the total up to 76 teams. That’s not just a tweak—it’s a pretty big shift in how things work.
Instead of four play-in games, you’d get 12. Eight new teams would join the fray, and eight lower-seeded at-large teams—who used to skip the play-in—would now have to fight their way in. It’s a more crowded field, for better or worse.
Motivations Behind the Expansion
Let’s not kid ourselves: the NCAA probably sees a revenue bump here. But there’s another angle—this could mean more chances for mid-major schools.
Teams outside the Power 4 conferences might actually get a shot at the national championship. More “bubble” teams means more mid-majors sneaking in. That could shake up the usual pecking order, at least a little.
The Impact of NIL on Mid-Major Programs
But here’s the rub: NIL has thrown a curveball at mid-major programs. The big schools can drop more cash on their athletes, offering deals that smaller programs just can’t match.
This has fueled a rush of players into the transfer portal. Talented players at mid-majors are getting poached by Power 4 schools with deeper pockets.
Take former Memphis guard PJ Haggerty, for example. He bounced around before landing at Kansas State. Or look at UAB’s Yazel Landeburg, New Mexico’s Donovan Dent, and Drake’s Bennet Stirz—they all jumped to major programs like Michigan, UCLA, and Iowa.
Case Studies: The Transfer Portal’s Impact
Walter Clayton Jr. is another case in point. He left Iona for Florida and ended up being a huge part of Florida’s first national championship in almost two decades. He even snagged the NCAA Final Four Most Outstanding Player award.
If this keeps up, mid-major schools could see their best players slip away year after year. That’s a tough pill to swallow for programs hoping to make a splash on the national stage.
Strategies for Mid-Major Programs
Some mid-majors are trying to roll with the punches. UAB’s head coach Andy Kennedy, for instance, has shifted gears in recruiting. He’s honest with recruits, telling them UAB might just be a stepping stone—a place to shine before moving up via the transfer portal.
It’s not ideal, but what’s the alternative? If these schools don’t adapt, they could fade into the background as the big programs keep growing their budgets. Sometimes you have to change just to stay in the game. Otherwise, well, you might not have a seat at the table for long.
The Road Ahead
The future of college basketball is honestly at a bit of a crossroads right now. With the possible expansion of the March Madness tournament, there are some new doors opening for mid-major programs.
But let’s not kid ourselves—the issues with NIL disparities and the transfer portal are looming large. These challenges aren’t going away anytime soon.
Mid-major schools have to adapt, maybe even get a little creative, if they want to keep up. Otherwise, they’re at real risk of being left behind.
If you want to keep tabs on how all this unfolds, there’s more insight into the potential fallout here.
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