The landscape of college basketball and its connection to the NBA Draft has changed dramatically in the last few years, mostly thanks to Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals. In 2021, more than 360 underclassmen from college declared for the NBA Draft.
Fast forward five years, and that number has crashed to just 71. The drop is mostly because NIL lets top college athletes make real money while they’re still in school.
Washington Wizards General Manager Will Dawkins recently shared his thoughts on NIL’s impact during ESPN2’s NBA Draft Combine coverage. He also brought up the NCAA’s possible five-for-five eligibility rule, which could shake things up even more.
The NIL Effect on NBA Draft Declarations
NIL has opened the door for college athletes to earn serious cash without leaving campus. This shift has changed how many underclassmen even bother declaring for the NBA Draft.
In 2021, over 360 college underclassmen put their names in. But by 2026, that number had dropped to 71. It’s a wild difference.
Financial Incentives to Stay in School
The main reason? NIL deals give players a level of financial comfort that just didn’t exist before. Unless you’re a sure-fire lottery pick, you can often make more by sticking around in college or even switching schools than by being a late first-round or second-round NBA pick.
Take former Wake Forest guard Juke Harris, the top transfer in the portal—he reportedly scored around $4 million to move to Tennessee. Florida forward Thomas Haugh is expected to get over $10 million in 2026-27, most of it from third-party NIL deals. That’s not chump change.
Impact on NBA Draft Depth
Will Dawkins, the Wizards’ GM, has some concerns about how NIL is thinning out the NBA Draft. During the combine, he pointed out that a lot of players in the middle of the first round are choosing to return to college for both the money and more time to develop.
This trend probably isn’t going away, especially if the NCAA passes its five-for-five eligibility rule, giving athletes five years of eligibility after turning 19 or graduating high school.
Strategic Moves by Agents
Agents are definitely adapting. They’re telling clients to stay in school and take advantage of NIL, which lets these athletes keep growing their game while also getting paid.
That’s led to a draft class that’s noticeably thinner, especially in the second round. More and more potential draftees are just heading back to college instead.
Opportunities and Challenges for NBA Teams
Sure, a thinner draft class makes things trickier for NBA teams. But it also pushes teams to widen their net and scout more globally.
That can actually be a good thing. Sometimes, you find a player overseas who’s a better fit than anyone left in the college pool.
Scouting Overseas Talent
With fewer top college players declaring, NBA teams are looking harder at international prospects. This global approach means teams need a sharper scouting operation, but it might pay off big if they spot the right player.
It’s not always easy, but the rewards can be huge if you get it right.
Stash Candidates
Another move? Drafting stash candidates—players who keep developing overseas or in other leagues before joining the NBA. It gives teams flexibility without burning a roster spot right away.
Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t, but it’s become a real part of the strategy.
The Future of College Basketball and the NBA Draft
NIL’s impact on college basketball and the NBA Draft is still playing out, but it’s definitely not going away. More college teams are using NIL to keep their best players, just like you see in football.
According to On3, at least 25 Power Four schools are expected to have rosters worth over $15 million, and 15 of those could top $20 million. That’s wild money for college hoops.
Revenue-Sharing Models
As NIL grows, we might see more creative revenue-sharing models pop up in college sports. These could offer even more reasons for athletes to stay put and keep the draft pool a little thinner.
It could make college basketball more competitive and secure for everyone involved, though who knows exactly where it’ll land.
Long-Term Implications
Down the line, NIL could actually help balance the NBA. If players stay in college longer, they’ll have more time to develop and mature before jumping to the pros.
Maybe that means rookies will be more ready for the NBA grind. It’s hard to say for sure, but it feels like we’re watching a new era take shape in real time.
Conclusion
The arrival of NIL has really shaken up college basketball. It’s changed how players and teams think about the NBA Draft.
There are definitely some new challenges, especially when it comes to the depth of the draft. But let’s be honest, there are also fresh opportunities for college programs and NBA teams if they’re willing to adapt.
Where does this all go next? Hard to say for sure. As NIL keeps shifting, it’ll be interesting to watch how these changes ripple through both college and pro basketball.
If you want to dig deeper into how NIL is affecting the NBA Draft, check out the full article on On3’s website.
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