The NCAA tournament is famous for its Cinderella stories. But lately, that mid-major magic seems to be slipping away.
People love to blame NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals and the transfer portal for this shift. If you look closer, though, conference realignment might be the real reason those underdog tales are fading out.
This post digs into how shuffling teams between conferences has chipped away at the competitive balance in college basketball. Smaller programs that once thrived in March Madness are struggling to keep up.
The Impact of NIL and Transfer Portal
There’s no denying that NIL deals and the transfer portal have changed the NCAA landscape. Power conference schools can now scout mid-major rosters and offer standout players deals that smaller schools just can’t match.
It’s led to a more top-heavy tournament. The average margin of victory in the first round hit 17.4 points—the biggest since 1985, when the tournament expanded.
Mid-Major Exodus
The bottom 270 or so programs are having a tough time holding onto their best players. Bigger contracts and more exposure at power conference schools are hard to turn down.
This steady talent drain has made it tougher for smaller schools to pull off those beloved upsets. The gap just keeps widening.
Conference Realignment: The Hidden Villain
It’s easy to point to NIL and transfers, but conference realignment might be the bigger problem. Since 2010, the push to build massive, coast-to-coast football conferences has set off a chain reaction.
Dozens of smaller conferences have been weakened. Teams like Butler, VCU, Wichita State, and Loyola Chicago are now in leagues that barely resemble where they started.
Shifting Landscapes
The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC keep expanding, scooping up top programs from smaller conferences and leaving those leagues depleted. The Big East, after its basketball-only reboot in 2013, grabbed Xavier and Butler from the A-10, plus Creighton from the Missouri Valley.
This started a domino effect. The A-10 took VCU and George Mason from the CAA, and Davidson from the Southern Conference. The Missouri Valley, after losing Creighton, Loyola, and Wichita State, added Belmont and Murray State, which watered down the Ohio Valley Conference even more.
Decline in Quality of Automatic Bids
The teams filling those Cinderella seed lines just aren’t as strong as they used to be. Back in 2016, the average KenPom ranking for No. 15 seeds was 124, and No. 14 seeds averaged 105.
By 2022, those numbers slid to 140 for No. 15 seeds and 134 for No. 14s. This year? No. 15 seeds are around 179, and No. 14 seeds sit at about 142. Ouch.
Numbers Don’t Lie
It’s clear that automatic bid winners aren’t what they once were. Conferences that used to send out real contenders are now fielding weaker champions.
And with fringe NBA prospects sticking around longer thanks to NIL, the top of college basketball just keeps getting stronger. The gap grows.
The Domino Effect
Conference realignment has set off a domino effect, weakening each league down the ladder. The MVC, CAA, and Horizon used to reliably send tough 12 or 13 seeds to the tournament.
Now? Those leagues are shadows of their former selves. Membership changes, but the same automatic bids keep coming, and the teams filling those slots just aren’t as strong.
Survival Scramble
Every time a league grabs the best members from the one below, the overall strength drops. It’s happened over and over with these realignment moves.
The competitive balance that made March Madness so wild? It’s getting harder to find.
Conference Realignment: The Real Culprit?
NIL and the transfer portal have gotten a lot of blame for the fading Cinderella stories, but honestly, the decade-long wave of conference realignment might be the bigger issue.
This reshuffling has chipped away at the strength of smaller conferences. Mid-major programs now face an uphill battle just to stay relevant, let alone pull off a big upset.
If the NCAA ever wants to protect the magic of March Madness, maybe it’s time to look at what’s really changed.
Want to dig deeper? Check out the original article on Yahoo Sports.
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