Top 5 Potential College Football Upsets to Watch in Week 12

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Week 12 of the 2025 college football season is here, and the energy is hard to ignore. There’s always that sense that something wild might happen—upsets just waiting to mess with the standings.

Last week’s upset predictions went 3-2. Wake Forest, Tulane, and Nebraska pulled off some nice wins.

This week, five more underdogs have caught my eye. There’s real value here, whether you’re in it for the bets or just the drama.

Let’s take a closer look at these matchups and see which teams could surprise everyone.

Table of Contents

Arkansas Razorbacks (+180) vs. LSU Tigers

Arkansas is walking into this game with LSU still licking its wounds from a 20-9 loss to Alabama. LSU’s offense has been all over the place lately, and now Michael Van Buren is making his first start of the year—nobody really knows what to expect.

Arkansas, meanwhile, is coming off a bye and hungry for its first SEC win. Their last game against Mississippi State was a mess with 193 penalty yards, which is just wild.

If Arkansas keeps it clean, they’re in a good spot to pull off the upset.

Key Factors

LSU’s offensive struggles: The Tigers just haven’t found their groove, and a new quarterback only adds to the chaos.
Arkansas’ readiness: Extra time off means more chances to fix what went wrong last time.
Motivation: Getting that first SEC win? That’s a huge motivator for Arkansas.

Oklahoma Sooners (+180) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Oklahoma’s coming in fresh off a bye, while Alabama still can’t seem to get its offense firing. The Crimson Tide haven’t put up a decent EPA-per-play performance since October—kind of shocking, honestly.

Oklahoma’s defense is legit, especially when it comes to pressure, and that’s been a real problem for Alabama’s quarterback Ty Simpson. The betting odds here just feel a bit off; Oklahoma’s got a real shot.

Key Factors

Defensive prowess: Oklahoma’s defense is built to make things tough for Alabama’s sputtering offense.
Rest and preparation: A week off is always nice, and Oklahoma should be ready.
Alabama’s offensive woes: It’s been weeks since the Tide looked like themselves on offense.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+225) vs. Missouri Tigers

Mississippi State needs just one more win for bowl eligibility under Jeff Lebby, and that’s got to be on everyone’s mind. They lost to Georgia, but honestly, they’ve been in most games this season.

Missouri’s in a rough spot—down to their third-string quarterback and not much left to play for. The locker room just feels flat, and that opens the door for Mississippi State.

Key Factors

Bowl eligibility: The Bulldogs are chasing that postseason spot, and it shows.
Missouri’s quarterback issues: Third-string QBs rarely spell good news.
Team morale: Missouri’s coming off a brutal loss, and it’s hard to bounce back from that.

Virginia Cavaliers (+195) vs. Duke Blue Devils

Duke’s favored by almost a touchdown, but honestly, they haven’t been all that reliable this year. Virginia might’ve been overrated last week, but there’s still some bounce-back potential here.

Duke’s Chandler Morris is banged up, but the gap between him and backup Daniel Kaelin isn’t huge. If Morris does play, Virginia’s odds look even tastier.

Key Factors

Duke’s inconsistency: The Blue Devils can look shaky against teams that aren’t even that great.
Virginia’s potential: The Cavaliers are eager to prove last week was a fluke.
Quarterback situation: Not much separates Duke’s starter and backup, which helps Virginia.

Michigan State Spartans (+235) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State barely escaped Indiana last week, and now Michigan State’s lurking as a live underdog. The Spartans have to win out to get a bowl, so the motivation is sky-high.

It’s tough to imagine Penn State repeating last week’s effort, and Michigan State should be refreshed after an idle week. Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic looked sharp in his last outing, which gives the Spartans a little spark.

Key Factors

Motivation: Michigan State needs to win out for bowl eligibility.
Quarterback play: Alessio Milivojevic’s performance adds a spark to the Spartans’ offense.
Rest and preparation: An idle week gives Michigan State an edge in preparation.

For more details and a deeper look, check out the full article on Saturday Down South.

Some of these potential upsets might shake up the college football world. They could even offer some real betting value for anyone willing to take a shot on the underdogs.

Joe Hughes is the founder of CollegeNetWorth.com, a comprehensive resource on college athletes' earnings potential in the NIL era. Combining his passion for sports with expertise in collegiate athletics, Joe provides valuable insights for athletes, fans, and institutions navigating this new landscape.

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