Get ready for an exciting night of college football. Week 9 brings us two matchups in Conference USA that could surprise you.
This Wednesday, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders take on the Delaware Blue Hens. After that, the Missouri State Bears square off against the New Mexico State Aggies.
Let’s break down these games and see where the best bets and predictions might be hiding for Wednesday night football.
Middle Tennessee vs. Delaware: A Battle of Inefficiencies
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have had a rough time on offense this season. They’re 107th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per pass and 129th in EPA per rush.
They’ve only managed to gain about 37.5% of available yards, with just eight yards on crucial downs. That’s led to drives stalling out early and more possessions for both teams.
Middle Tennessee’s Offensive Struggles
Getting ahead on early downs? Not really happening for the Blue Raiders. Their EPA on those downs is basically zero.
But Delaware’s defense has been pretty soft on late downs, allowing nearly 47% of third and fourth downs to be converted. That could give Middle Tennessee just enough of a window to keep a few drives alive.
On the other side, Delaware’s offense looks like a good fit for this matchup. The Blue Hens are balanced but especially strong through the air, which could spell trouble for a Middle Tennessee defense that’s been struggling mightily against the pass—allowing +0.26 EPA per attempt.
Delaware’s numbers suggest they’ll be able to move the ball and put together steady drives in this one.
Delaware’s Offensive Prowess
Delaware’s offense is well above average in both EPA per play and available yards gained. They stay on schedule with decent early-down efficiency.
That means they’re usually facing manageable third downs, which is bad news for a Middle Tennessee defense that can’t seem to get off the field. It feels like a setup for long, clock-eating drives that end in touchdowns more often than not.
Expect a High-Scoring Game
If you look at how these teams match up, it’s hard not to expect points. Delaware should have success through the air, especially with Middle Tennessee’s pass defense ranked 130th.
The Blue Raiders’ struggles to keep drives alive could mean Delaware gets more possessions and better field position than usual. Even with Middle Tennessee’s inconsistency, Delaware’s defense is soft enough on late downs that the Blue Raiders could still string together a few scoring drives.
If Delaware jumps out to a quick lead, Middle Tennessee might pick up the pace, which could push the total even higher. The over 55 points (play to 55.5) looks like the move here.
Missouri State vs. New Mexico State: A Defensive Battle
Missouri State comes into this midweek game hoping to build off some progress with freshman quarterback Deuce Bailey, who started the last game against Middle Tennessee. Still, the offense has struggled to find any rhythm or sustain drives.
The Impact of Jacob Clark
The big question is whether starting quarterback Jacob Clark will play. His presence could really change things for the Bears’ offense.
Missouri State ranks 46th nationally in EPA per pass at +0.14, but their run game is another story—sitting at -0.13 EPA per rush and ranking 126th in the country. Bailey’s shown flashes, but Clark’s experience would help a lot.
New Mexico State’s offense has a similar profile, but that’s not exactly a compliment. The Aggies are 55th in EPA per pass but a dismal 133rd in EPA per rush.
Low-Scoring Affair Expected
Honestly, this one looks like it’ll be a grind. Neither offense cracks the top 40 in explosiveness, and both are in the bottom half of the country for third-down offense and available yards gained.
Missouri State’s inability to run or convert on third down could lead to a lot of empty drives and punts. If you’re hoping for fireworks, you might want to look elsewhere this Wednesday.
Defensive Struggles
New Mexico State just isn’t built to flip defensive stops into quick points. Their rushing attack ranks 133rd in EPA per rush, and their early downs EPA is buried near the bottom nationally.
This one’s probably going to be all about field position. Expect conservative play-calling and defenses that make you earn every yard—long, slow drives just to get on the board.
Neither team really pops off for big plays, and both tend to stall out after crossing midfield. If Clark’s ruled out, the total points line could slide even lower, so yeah, the under 51.5 points looks like the best call here.
Want more in-depth takes or a second opinion? Check out Action Network for detailed analysis and expert picks.
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