For college football fans and bettors, knowing the right trends, systems, and power ratings can make all the difference. VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen’s latest report digs into the best plays for Week 3, using all sorts of analytical data, betting systems, and strength ratings.
This breakdown aims to make those insights a bit more accessible. Whether you’re a longtime bettor or just getting started, these trends and systems might help you find an edge—or at least avoid a few headaches.
Top Trends and Betting Systems for Week 3
Makinen’s report highlights some key trends and betting systems that have been reliable over the years. The data is rooted in history, but it’s also adjusted for what’s happening right now.
Let’s take a closer look at the most interesting trends and systems for this week’s college football slate.
Double-Digit Home Favorites in Ranked Matchups
One big trend: when two ranked teams meet and the home team is a double-digit favorite with a total over 56, the *Under* has cashed 75.9% of the time since 2017. The South Florida-Miami FL game, with an over/under at 56.5, checks every box for this trend.
Teams Coming Off Major Upsets
Another system looks at teams that lost as favorites of 19.5 points or more. Historically, these squads have fared poorly in their next game, going just 42-67 straight up and 38-67-4 against the spread since 2012.
This week, Eastern Michigan (+24.5 at Kentucky) fits the bill.
Trend Matches to Watch
A few teams have trends that make them stand out this week. Here are some that caught my attention:
- South Carolina is on a 16-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS run against Vanderbilt. At -5.5 versus Vandy, that’s hard to ignore.
- Arizona State has gone 15-3-1 to the Under in non-conference games since 2019. The Texas State-Arizona State game (over/under 57.5) could be good for an Under play.
- Kent State has struggled at home in conference games after a blowout loss of over 45 points, going just 45-74 ATS since 2010. This week, they’re +22.5 against Buffalo.
Undervalued Underdogs
Makinen’s Power Ratings point to Louisiana as the most underpriced underdog this week. They’re +27.5 against Missouri, but the projections say it should be closer to +20.9.
That’s a pretty big gap. Louisiana might be worth a look.
Stability Scores and Their Impact
Stability Scores are another piece of Makinen’s puzzle. These scores measure how steady a team is from year to year, which can matter a lot early in the season.
Teams with a clear stability edge tend to start strong. Here are this week’s notable matchups:
- NC State (-7) at Wake Forest: Stability Advantage of 9
- UCLA (-16.5) vs. New Mexico: Stability Advantage of 9
- Michigan (-27.5) vs. Central Michigan: Stability Advantage of 8
- Pittsburgh (-7) at West Virginia: Stability Advantage of 12
- North Texas (-6) vs. Washington State: Stability Advantage of 9
Betting Splits and Public Perception
The VSiN report also digs into betting splits, which can reveal where the public is leaning—and sometimes, that’s a signal to go the other way. Here are a few systems based on those splits:
- Fade Majority Handle: When over 75% of the handle is on one side, that group has only covered 47.1% ATS since 2022. This week, that means fading NC State, Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, North Texas, Texas Tech, USC, Missouri, Bowling Green, Ohio State, Old Dominion, East Carolina, Duke, Utah, UAB, and Boston College.
- Fade Majority Bets: When 76%+ of the number of bets are on the home side, those teams have hit just 46.6% ATS since 2022. This week, Michigan, Auburn, Texas Tech, Missouri, Ohio State, Illinois, and UAB fall into that category.
- Fade Road Favorites: When most of the handle is on road favorites, they’ve only gone 47% ATS since 2022. This week, the list includes NC State, Memphis, Oklahoma, Oregon, Buffalo, Clemson, UConn, Georgia, Pittsburgh, USC, SMU, Iowa State, East Carolina, Utah, Air Force, and Boston College.
Revenge and Conference Game Systems
Revenge games and conference matchups can bring out some interesting angles. Here are a few trends that stand out:
- Wisconsin is 13-6 ATS in revenge mode since 2016. They’re +21 at Alabama this week.
- LSU is 16-7 SU and 4-7 ATS in revenge mode since 2016. They’re -7.5 vs. Florida.
- South Florida is 20-13 ATS in revenge games since 2016. They’re +17.5 at Miami FL.
AP Poll Rankings and Betting
When two ranked teams face off, home teams have had the upper hand. Since 2017, they’re 199-95 SU and 172-114-8 ATS (about 60%) in these games.
This week, Tennessee (+3.5 vs. Georgia), Miami FL (-17.5 vs. South Florida), and Notre Dame (-7 vs. Texas A&M) all fit that trend. And when the home team is ranked higher, they’ve gone 115-23 SU and 85-49-4 ATS (63.4%). Miami FL and Notre Dame are the big names to watch for that angle this week.
Conclusion
VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen’s insights? Honestly, they’re a goldmine for anyone hoping to get a leg up during Week 3 of college football. If you’re into trends, stability scores, betting splits, or just want to mess around with power ratings, these tips could help you make sharper picks.
Curious for more? You can take a closer look at the VSiN article for the full breakdown.
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