We’re deep into the college football season now, and Week 13 is shaping up to be a wild ride. Steve Makinen, who knows the ins and outs of the game, has weighed in with his thoughts and predictions for this crucial week.
Makinen’s had a tough season, but he still brings sharp analysis to the table. He’s breaking down which bets look smart and what factors might swing these games.
Let’s see where his head’s at and maybe find a few angles for ourselves.
Wednesday, November 19, 2025: Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo
Makinen starts off with the Miami (OH) Redhawks facing the Buffalo Bulls. The Redhawks, despite some bumps, have been putting up points—30.1 per game over their last seven.
Buffalo’s defense? Not great. They just allowed 38 points to Central Michigan, so there are holes there.
Betting Insights and Trends
Makinen’s Effective Strength and Bettors’ Ratings spit out point totals of 45.3 and 42.2, both hinting at the Over. And with 77% of DraftKings bets on the Over, there’s a trend worth noting.
Since 2022, games with totals at 46.5 or lower have hit the Over 55.3% of the time when a big majority of bets (72%+) are on it. That number even crept up to 57.8% in 2024. Hard to ignore.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Take the Over 38.5 in the Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo game.
Thursday, November 20, 2025: Louisiana vs. Arkansas State
Thursday brings Louisiana against Arkansas State. These teams are heading in slightly different directions lately. Arkansas State’s defense has tightened up, averaging just 21.3 points allowed over their last four games.
Betting Systems and Historical Data
Makinen points to two betting systems that both favor the Under. First, Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under 65.4% of the time since 2015.
Second, Sun Belt small home favorites or pick ’ems (lines -5.5 or tighter) with totals between 52.5 and 65 have seen the Under hit at an even higher 69.4% rate since 2015.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Bet on the Under 53.5 in the Louisiana vs. Arkansas State game.
Friday, November 21, 2025: Hawaii vs. UNLV
Friday’s Hawaii vs. UNLV tilt brings some betting intrigue. Both teams have reputations for scoring, but Hawaii’s defense has been sneaky good, allowing just 21.5 points per game.
Handle Data and Betting Trends
Here’s something odd: 97% of the handle is on the Over, but the line hasn’t budged. That’s rare. There’s also a trend—Mountain West home favorites of a touchdown or less, with totals 60.5 or higher, have seen the Under hit 73.1% since 2016.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Take the Under 64.5 in the Hawaii vs. UNLV game.
Saturday, November 22, 2025: Key Matchups and Best Bets
Saturday is loaded with big games and a bunch of betting angles. Makinen digs into several matchups, leaning on trends and how teams are playing right now.
Tulane vs. Temple
Ranked teams on the road, favored by more than six against unranked hosts, have gone 116-17 straight up and 74-56-3 against the spread in Week 12 or later since 2017. Tulane’s been a solid favorite too, sitting at 51-28-1 ATS since 2014. Temple? They just haven’t put it together.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Lay the 8.5 points with Tulane to cover against Temple.
Marshall vs. Opponent
Marshall’s fighting for bowl eligibility with new coach Tony Gibson. Sun Belt road favorites between -3.5 and -10 are 68-29 straight up and 58-39 ATS since 2015. Makinen’s numbers suggest Marshall’s undervalued here.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Lay the 4.5 points with Marshall on the road.
BYU vs. Cincinnati
BYU’s looking for redemption and a shot at the Big 12 title game. Historically, ranked road teams in Week 12 or later are 135-36 straight up and 93-75-3 ATS against unranked home teams since 2017.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Take BYU -2.5 to win and cover against Cincinnati.
Georgia Tech vs. Pitt
Georgia Tech gets a boost from a betting system: ranked teams coming off a close win (seven points or less) and failing to cover are 220-51 straight up and 156-113-2 ATS as favorites in the next game since October 2015.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Lay the 2.5 points with Georgia Tech in their ACC clash with Pitt.
Michigan vs. Maryland
Michigan’s been tough on the road—20-11 ATS in road or neutral games over the last four seasons. Maryland’s dropped six straight, including three at home. That old trend about ranked road teams late in the year backs Michigan, too.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Lay the 14 points with Michigan to cover against Maryland.
Nebraska vs. Penn State
Nebraska’s rolling with backup QB TJ Lateef, and he’s shown some spark. Conference road dogs getting more than seven after a two-week break are 150-121 ATS since 2010.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Take Nebraska +9.5 at Penn State.
Boise State vs. Opponent
Boise State’s been a force at home on the Smurf Turf. It’s a big number to lay late in the season, but their dominance can’t be overlooked.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Lay the 16.5 points with Boise State.
Kansas State vs. Utah
Some anti-big home favorite systems say be careful with huge spreads. Ranked home favorites giving more than 14 are only 44.5% ATS versus unranked conference foes since October 2015.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Back Kansas State +17.5 in Utah.
Baylor vs. Arizona
Teams that lost as underdogs but put up 550+ yards have bounced back well, going 61-45-2 ATS over the past 12 years. Baylor fits after lighting up Utah last week.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Take Baylor +7 points in Tucson.
Texas vs. Arkansas
Texas is out of CFP contention, but they’ve still got plenty to play for. With Arch Manning at QB, the Longhorns are motivated against a high-flying Arkansas squad.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Trust Texas (-8.5) to bring the effort and cover.
USC vs. Oregon
USC’s had issues on the road, while Oregon’s home field is no joke—worth about 4.4 points. Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and facing another ranked team are just 44.1% ATS since 2019.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Take Oregon -9.5 hosting USC.
Sam Houston State vs. Opponent
Sam Houston State’s been on a heater lately. Makes them a tempting underdog.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Take Sam Houston State +7.
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin hasn’t really had a home-field edge under Luke Fickell, while Illinois has quietly been solid on both sides of the ball.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Lay the 7.5 points with Illinois in Madison.
Southern Miss vs. South Alabama
Southern Miss has looked better against common opponents, but the line doesn’t seem to reflect that. They’re the pick here.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Take Southern Miss -2.5 at South Alabama.
Jacksonville State vs. Opponent
Jacksonville State hasn’t lost in Conference USA, and Charles Kelly’s made the transition look easy.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Lay the short -1.5 points with Jacksonville State.
New Mexico vs. Air Force
Recent Under trends don’t really tell the whole story here. When New Mexico faces Air Force, their games have a habit of going Over, at least if you look back at their head-to-head history.
College Football Week 13 Best Bet: Honestly, I’d take the Over in the New Mexico vs. Air Force game.
Want to dig deeper or check out other picks? The College Football Week 13 hub on VSiN has you covered.
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