The Tulane Green Wave are set to take on the UTSA Roadrunners in San Antonio, Texas. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, and there’s already a lot of talk about how close this one could be.
Tulane’s favored by -4.5 points, but the Roadrunners might just cover that spread. Fans and bettors are both eyeing this game for good reason—it could get wild.
Tulane vs. UTSA: A Clash of Styles
Tulane comes in as a slight road favorite. The oddsmakers may not be giving enough credit to how even these teams really are.
The Green Wave has leaned on big passing plays, but not always with steady efficiency. Jake Retzlaff, their quarterback, has only five passing touchdowns this season, partly because he’s missed games with injuries.
He’s made up for it a bit with eight rushing scores. Still, the offense hasn’t always found its rhythm.
Tulane’s Offensive Struggles
Tulane’s running game has been pretty lackluster, ranking 102nd nationally in EPA per rush. On early downs, they’re just average—outside the top 70.
That means they’re often stuck in tough third-down spots, needing almost 7.7 yards on average. The Roadrunners’ defensive front could make those situations even tougher, putting Tulane in a bind all night.
Most of Tulane’s wins have come by just a single possession, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence if things get tight late.
Defensive Woes
Defensively, Tulane can be a bit all over the place. Sometimes they’re tough, other times they just seem to lose their way entirely.
They’re 44th in the nation against the run, holding teams to 41.5% of available yards. But their pass defense? It’s a real sore spot, giving up +0.20 EPA per pass and ranking 125th nationally.
UTSA’s offense, led by Owen McCown, could really take advantage of that. The guy loves to air it out and isn’t afraid to take shots downfield.
UTSA’s Competitive Edge
UTSA’s 3-4 record doesn’t really show how tough they’ve been, especially at home. They’ve built their success on sharp quarterback play and, honestly, some of the best field position in the country.
They start drives at their own 38-yard line on average, which is just ridiculous. That short field helps cover up some of their running game issues.
Owen McCown Leading the Charge
Owen McCown’s been excellent—12 touchdowns to just two picks. The Roadrunners are 40th nationally in EPA per pass at +0.15, which is nothing to sneeze at.
Their rushing attack isn’t great, sitting at -0.05 EPA per rush, but they make up for it by converting 44.5% of third and fourth downs. They also gain 58.5% of available yards, which puts them among the top 20 teams in the country.
With a bye week to prepare, UTSA should have plenty of ways to attack Tulane’s shaky secondary.
Defensive Strengths
UTSA’s defense is kind of underrated. Their pass defense is 28th in EPA per pass at -0.11, so they’re not just hanging on—they’re forcing mistakes.
The run defense isn’t as solid, ranking 106th, but since Tulane can’t really run the ball anyway, it’s probably not a huge deal.
Home-Field Advantage
The Alamodome just seems to bring out the best in UTSA, especially early in games. That home crowd energy is real, and it’s something Tulane will have to deal with.
So far in 2025, UTSA’s been putting up at least 36 points a game at home. If they get rolling, especially through the air, things could get out of hand fast.
Special Teams and Coaching Factors
Tulane hasn’t done themselves any favors on special teams, usually starting drives at their own 27-yard line. That’s a long way to go every time.
There’s also some chatter around head coach Jon Sumrall, who’s getting attention from Power 4 programs. That sort of thing can be a distraction, maybe even mess with the team’s focus.
Final Thoughts
This matchup looks like it’ll be tight—a one-possession game, most likely. Tulane’s efficiency doesn’t really justify them being favored by more than a field goal.
The Tulane vs. UTSA game is shaping up to be a real showdown. The Roadrunners are at home, and you’ve got to think they’ll want to exploit any cracks in Tulane’s defense.
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