If you’re into betting on college football, the 2026 NCAAF season could get pretty interesting. Our expert, who’s been at this for over 30 years, has spotted a few long-shot futures that might pay off big.
This year, the spotlight’s on the Houston Cougars making a splash in the Big 12. There are a couple of other intriguing picks too—New Mexico and Liberty, for starters.
So, what makes these teams worth a closer look? Let’s dig in.
Houston Cougars: A Big 12 Contender
The Houston Cougars might be ready to shake things up in the Big 12. Head coach Willie Fritz, who’s had success everywhere from Sam Houston State to Tulane, is steering the ship now.
They’re coming off a 10-win season, and Fritz’s experience, plus a solid group of returning players, gives Houston some real bite.
Key Factors for Houston’s Success
Here’s why there’s some real optimism around Houston:
- Experienced Leadership: Willie Fritz might just be the most underrated coach out there.
- Returning Talent: The Cougars are No. 9 on Phil Steele’s experience chart and No. 17 for returning production, per Bill Connelly.
- Quarterback Strength: Conner Weigman is back after tossing 25 touchdowns and running for 11 more last year.
- Impact Transfers: Makhi Hughes, who’s transferring from Oregon, played for Fritz at Tulane and put up big numbers.
Power rankings have Houston favored in nine games. There’s even a toss-up at Kansas State, which could tip their way.
And if Texas Tech’s QB Will Hammond misses their September 18 matchup, that’s another potential boost for Houston.
New Mexico Lobos: A Playoff Dark Horse
The New Mexico Lobos might surprise a few people this season. They averaged just three wins a year from 2017 to 2024, but last year, under head coach Jason Eck, they jumped to nine wins.
This time around, they’re looking to build on that and might actually be the favorites in the Mountain West.
Why New Mexico Could Surprise
Here’s what makes New Mexico an interesting long shot:
- Rising Coaching Star: Jason Eck’s starting to get noticed in coaching circles.
- Returning Starters: Thirteen starters are back, including their QB, Jack Layne.
- High Returning Production: The Lobos are No. 21 for returning production, second-best among Group of Six teams, according to Bill Connelly.
They’ve got home games against North Dakota State and UNLV. With the right breaks, New Mexico could be favored in up to 11 games this season.
Penn State Nittany Lions: A Big Ten Long Shot
Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon are the talk of the Big Ten, but Penn State’s lurking as a long shot. It won’t be easy, but their schedule and veteran roster give them a puncher’s chance.
Penn State’s Path to Success
What could help Penn State make a run?
- Experienced Transfers: Matt Campbell brings in 13 starters from Iowa State.
- Favorable Schedule: They avoid the Big Ten’s top three, so they could be favored in 10 games.
- Underdog Potential: Their toughest spot is at Michigan, where they’re +6.5 at DraftKings. Not impossible, right?
Keelon Russell: A Heisman Trophy Contender
Alabama’s quarterback race between Keelon Russell and Austin Mack is worth keeping an eye on. Mack’s got the experience, but Russell’s ceiling is sky-high—he could be a real Heisman contender if things click.
Russell’s Heisman Potential
Why’s Russell getting buzz?
- Spring Game Performance: He went 21-for-33 for 240 yards, tossing four touchdowns and one pick.
- Dual-Threat Ability: He can move—showed it even in a non-contact jersey.
- QB-Friendly System: Kalen DeBoer’s system has been good for quarterbacks since his Fresno State days.
If Russell lives up to his five-star billing, Alabama could be 5-0 when they host Georgia in October. That’d make him a real Heisman frontrunner, wouldn’t it?
Liberty Flames: A Group of Six Sleeper
The Liberty Flames just had their first losing season in two decades, but honestly, they weren’t as bad as the record says. Three straight overtime losses to close the year hurt, but they still out-gained their opponents by 67 yards per game in conference play—the best in C-USA, even with a 3-5 conference record.
Liberty’s Road to Redemption
Several things point to Liberty being one of the most improved teams this year.
- Improved Record: They’re projected to jump from 4-8 last season to 9-3.
- Favorable Schedule: After the opener at James Madison, Liberty might actually be favored in every remaining game.
- Preseason Favorites: Liberty heads into the season as the C-USA favorite, with a win total set at 8.5.
There’s a real shot Liberty could end up with the best record among Group of Six teams. Could they sneak into the CFP? Maybe that’s a stretch, but it’s not impossible.
If you want to dig deeper or see more betting angles, check out the full breakdown on Covers.
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